【Introduction】Anhydrous hydrogen fluoride (AHF) was expected to remain in a downward cycle, with the market broadly anticipating continued weakness. However, prices surged unexpectedly this month, with high-priced deals frequently boosting market sentiment. A passive supply gap opened, pushing prices to new multi-year highs.
Supply gap suddenly widens, prices soar to highs
At the beginning of this month, AHF pricing continued its downward trend with a drop of 300–350 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, demand from downstream enterprises in the north shrank, maintaining the typical pattern of "south high, north low." However, a major northern producer temporarily halted production early in the month. Although inventories were available for delivery, fulfilling bulk orders proved difficult. Coming in the off-season, some producers chose to shut down for maintenance or implement rotating inspections. As a result, quoted prices in the northern market surged sharply, with spot transaction prices breaking through the price levels seen in April–May for AHF. Downstream buyers rushed to place supplementary orders, driving producers in Shandong and East China to raise operating rates or postpone maintenance schedules. Although additional supply was quickly released to the market and eased the supply gap, sellers maintained high offer prices. The market's previously linear bearish sentiment reversed, with bullish sentiment building ahead of expectations.
Raw materials escalate repeatedly, intensifying cost pressure
The sustained price uptrend in AHF this year has been fueled by the continuous heating of sulfur and sulfuric acid markets. However, as sulfur prices repeatedly hit highs, their correlation with sulfuric acid weakened. Meanwhile, as the fertilizer peak season faded, sulfuric acid prices loosened slightly but remained elevated. The fluorite market has long been under passive pressure, with AHF price gains largely captured by sulfuric acid. Domestic mine operations in Zhejiang and Fujian remain constrained, while strict supervision and inspections in Inner Mongolia have limited raw ore output, lowering overall capacity utilization. Additionally, cross-border logistics from Mongolia declined significantly earlier due to the Naadam festival, prompting industry players to actively push for price increases. Repeated price hikes added new cost pressures for AHF.
Demand sentiment pulls, but cannot dampen off-season rally
Although July–September is traditionally the off-season for fluorochemicals, with weakening terminal demand for refrigerants, the temporary production halt of a major northern producer combined with industry maintenance led to a significant contraction in supply. Producers held firm on prices and were reluctant to sell, supported by dual cost pressures from fluorite and sulfuric acid. Together, these factors drove prices to rise counter-seasonally. As the peak air conditioner production and sales season winds down, refrigerant stocking is largely complete, and monthly procurement volumes from downstream buyers have contracted notably. Refrigerant plants are only replenishing for immediate needs, with almost no new inventory building. New orders have clearly decreased, with most fulfillment focused on long-term contract deliveries. Prices of R32, R134a, and R125 have corrected downward, and downstream procurement has become very cautious — buying only as needed without stockpiling. The real estate and aluminum processing sectors remain weak; electrolytic aluminum producers face margin pressure with stable but no incremental output. Fluoride salt plants are purchasing raw materials only for immediate use without proactive inventory building, and price transmission is blocked. As a result, the pull effect on AHF is neutral and mild. Overall, aggregate demand is in a traditional off-season, providing no upward momentum. The recent price increase is fundamentally driven by supply contraction and cost pressure.
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