Review of Maleic Anhydride Market Performance in 2025

According to the commodity market analysis system of 100ppi.com, China's maleic anhydride market experienced a volatile downward trend in 2025. The average market price started the year at 6,520 RMB/ton and ended at 5,112.50 RMB/ton, representing an annual decline of 21.59%. The yearly high occurred on April 28th at 6,925 RMB/ton, while the yearly low was recorded on December 18th at 5,125 RMB/ton, resulting in a maximum annual price fluctuation of 25.99%. Overall, the domestic maleic anhydride market saw a significant correction in 2025.

Data from the monthly K-bar charts of the maleic anhydride market on 100ppi.com for 2025 show that the market experienced more declining months than rising ones, with only 3 months showing an upward trend and 9 months showing a downward trend. The highest monthly increase was in March at 3.19%, while the largest monthly decrease was in July at 6.01%.

First Half of 2025: Brief Rally Followed by Pressure-Induced Decline

• Early January to Early May: The market continued the recovery trend from the end of 2024. Coupled with the resumption of operating rates in downstream industries such as unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) and coatings after the Spring Festival, the price of maleic anhydride fluctuated upward from 6,520 RMB/ton to the yearly high of 6,925 RMB/ton.
• May to June: With the release of new production capacities, market supply pressure became prominent. Simultaneously, downstream demand failed to keep pace, leading to a rapid price decline to around 6,330 RMB/ton.

Second Half of 2025: Supply-Demand Imbalance Accelerates Downturn

• July to Year-End: Maleic anhydride prices entered a one-way downward channel. On one hand, multiple domestic maleic anhydride plants commenced operations, increasing the industry's capacity utilization rate to over 75%, leading to persistent market oversupply. On the other hand, the downstream unsaturated polyester resin industry, affected by a sluggish real estate sector and shrinking export orders, maintained operating rates around 50%, resulting in weak demand-side support. Prices continuously fell from 6,237.5 RMB/ton to 5,112.5 RMB/ton, accumulating a decline of over 18% in the second half.

Forecast for the Maleic Anhydride Market in 2026

Cost Perspective:

• Feedstock n-Butane: The n-butane market experienced a volatile decline in 2025, with the average price starting at 5,180 RMB/ton and ending at 4,470 RMB/ton, an annual drop of 13.71%. n-Butane prices were significantly influenced by fluctuations in international crude oil markets. Additionally, the domestic naphtha market in 2025 rose initially before falling, with a decline of 9.35%, providing limited cost support for n-butane.

Supply Perspective:
In 2025, China's effective maleic anhydride capacity reached 1.92 million tons per year, with actual production of approximately 1.685 million tons. The operating rate remained at a high level of 87.8%, reflecting a generally tight supply-demand balance within the industry. A significant shift occurred in China's maleic anhydride capacity structure in 2025. The share of the n-butane oxidation process route reached 76.3%, a notable increase from 58.1% in 2020, marking a round of technological iteration driven by energy efficiency and environmental constraints. In contrast, benzene oxidation capacity was reduced to 237,000 tons/year, accounting for only 17.9%.

Demand Perspective:
China's apparent consumption of maleic anhydride in 2025 was approximately 861,000 tons, a 6.3% increase from 810,000 tons in 2024. Within the downstream consumption structure for maleic anhydride in 2025, Unsaturated Polyester Resin (UPR) remained the largest consumption segment, accounting for about 48% of total consumption, although its growth rate slowed to 5.2%. BDO's share was 22.3%, with a high growth rate of 14.7%, driven by expansion waves in Ningdong, Yulin, and other regions.
The UPR industry remains one of the largest demand areas for maleic anhydride, accounting for nearly half of consumption. In 2025, the UPR sector continued to face oversupply, with most producers maintaining low operating rates. Overall, UPR market prices showed a downward trend in 2025.
Downstream demand in 2026 is expected to maintain structural growth, with wind power, rail transit, and new energy vehicles becoming new growth drivers. High-performance vinyl ester resins for wind turbine blades are projected to have an average annual growth rate exceeding 12%. Orders from traditional downstream sectors like shipbuilding and conventional automotive manufacturing are expected to continue contracting. SMC materials account for over 30% of shipbuilding materials, and industry downturn directly leads to sharp reductions in procurement.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, national real estate development investment in 2025 was 8.2788 trillion RMB, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year. Residential investment was 6.3514 trillion RMB, down 16.3%. The floor space of buildings under construction by real estate developers was 6.5989 billion square meters, down 10.0%. Residential building space under construction was 4.60123 billion square meters, down 10.3%. New construction starts totaled 587.70 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new starts at 429.84 million square meters, down 19.8%. Completed building area was 603.48 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 428.30 million square meters, down 20.2%. The continuous significant decline in real estate investment and severe shortage of new projects lead to a continued sharp drop in glass demand from the real estate sector, limiting demand growth for UPR from traditional end-use industries.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.40 million vehicles respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 9.4%. Within this, new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2%. NEV sales accounted for 47.9% of total new vehicle sales. With the continuous expansion of the NEV market, demand for UPR in the automotive sector has increased.
According to data from 100ppi.com, the domestic BDO market in 2025 experienced a pattern of first falling, then rising, followed by a continuous decline, remaining generally weak throughout the year. New BDO production capacity continued to be released in 2025, while downstream demand failed to keep pace, further intensifying supply-demand contradictions. Fierce market competition led to prolonged price pressure. The industry's overcapacity structure continued to solidify. By the end of 2025, domestic BDO capacity reached 6.05 million tons/year (including under-construction), with annual production of approximately 2.58 million tons. The overall industry operating rate remained around 50%. Operations showed significant divergence: integrated enterprises in Northwest China, leveraging raw material cost advantages, maintained operating rates of 70%-80%, while small and medium-sized enterprises lacking cost advantages operated at rates below 30%, with some units even idled long-term.

Market Outlook:
The price of maleic anhydride in 2026 is forecasted to fluctuate within the range of 4,800 - 6,800 RMB/ton. Price trends will be influenced by the following factors:

• Raw Material Side: Price movements of n-butane and benzene will directly impact maleic anhydride production costs.
• Supply Side: The pace of new capacity releases will affect market supply-demand balance.
• Demand Side: Changes in demand from downstream PBAT and UPR industries will directly influence maleic anhydride prices.
• Policy Side: Environmental protection policies and carbon emission reduction requirements will increase production costs, providing support for prices.