Introduction: Recently, due to frequent fluctuations in crude oil, acrylic emulsion raw materials have shown a high-level consolidation trend. Cost-side pressure remains elevated, but downstream demand has not kept pace. With ongoing tussling between upstream and downstream players, the acrylic emulsion market has maintained stable operation.
I. Price trend analysis of acrylic emulsion
International crude oil strengthened, with styrene port withdrawals exceeding arrivals. Combined with export loadings, inventories at Jiangsu ports declined, strengthening spot support. Affected by industry losses, despite some units having plans to raise operating rates and restart, Lihuayi's maintenance offset those plans, and overall operating rates fell somewhat. Downstream demand improved only marginally, with a low overall base and cautious end-user attitudes toward price increases, resulting in a market where prices rose but transactions struggled to follow. This week, spot styrene transactions in Jiangsu were concentrated in the range of 8,580–9,050 yuan/ton, up 4.17% from last Thursday.
This week, the propylene market rose consecutively due to tight supply. Several n-butanol plants successively shut down for maintenance. High cost pressure and reduced supply drove up n-butanol prices. Butyl acrylate faced mounting cost pressure, with holders lifting offers and low-priced supply decreasing. However, downstream tape master rolls and acrylic emulsion units generally operated at low loads and resisted high-priced raw materials, limiting the upside for prices. The market overall remained range-bound. Butyl acrylate fluctuated within a range this week, trading at 8,200–8,400 yuan/ton in East China, with the weekly average price down 0.36% week-on-week.
The MMA market moved sideways in consolidation, with overall transactions lackluster. Industry capacity utilization fell to 58%. Zhejiang Petrochemical and Liaoning Jinfu units were under maintenance, while some Jilin Petrochemical units resumed production, but the tight supply situation was not improved. Supported by costs, producers showed strong price-firming intentions, negotiation space narrowed, and the market shifted to a wait-and-see stance. Prices were 11,500–11,600 yuan/ton in East China, 11,500 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 11,500–11,800 yuan/ton in South China, with wait-and-see sentiment dominating.
Recently, cost pressure on domestic acrylic emulsion has continued to increase. Last week, leading acrylic emulsion companies collectively raised product quotations. However, downstream demand from coatings, waterproofing, and other industries was weak, with terminal operating rates subdued and mostly small orders for essential needs. The market continued to see a tug-of-war between costs and demand. In the short term, pushing up emulsion prices is difficult, and the pass-through of price increases fell short of expectations. After a narrow rise, acrylic emulsion prices then held steady. This week, cost pressure persisted, but demand follow-up remained weak. Holders mostly maintained range-bound offers, and the market operated smoothly.
II. Cost-side pressure persists; acrylic emulsion maintains operations at cost margins
This week, upstream raw materials MMA and butyl acrylate remained range-bound. The cost side for pure acrylic emulsion saw limited changes, with pure acrylic emulsion prices edging higher during the week. The theoretical production gross profit for pure acrylic emulsion stood at 386.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week-on-week, an increase of 6.92%. Meanwhile, styrene prices rose consecutively during the week, strengthening cost support for styrene-acrylic emulsion. The theoretical production gross profit for styrene-acrylic emulsion was -265.76 yuan/ton, down 8.72 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 3.39%. Pure acrylic emulsion profitability increased slightly, while losses for styrene-acrylic emulsion expanded slightly.
III. Acrylic emulsion capacity utilization remains low
The crude oil market fluctuated frequently at high levels. Upstream raw materials styrene, butyl acrylate, and MMA held firm, sharply increasing cost pressure. However, downstream demand failed to keep up, and acrylic emulsion plants received limited orders. To avoid cost and inventory accumulation risks, emulsion plants maintained relatively low capacity utilization rates.
IV. Cost pressure and weak demand weigh; acrylic emulsion operates steadily
In summary, short-term cost support is the main factor driving acrylic emulsion price fluctuations. At present, the crude oil market is fluctuating frequently, and raw material market trends are uncertain. Butyl acrylate, styrene, and MMA markets are likely to continue operating in narrow ranges, while the cost side of acrylic emulsion may remain under high pressure. With firm cost-side pressure, acrylic emulsion plants will likely keep capacity utilization rates low to avoid cost risks, mainly digesting spot inventories, leaving supply relatively stable. On the demand side, September to October marks the traditional peak season for the acrylic emulsion industry. Downstream demand is gradually increasing, and acrylic emulsion may see relatively robust production and sales. Therefore, the acrylic emulsion market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with styrene-acrylic emulsion prices fluctuating in the range of 5,100–5,600 yuan/ton and pure acrylic emulsion prices expected to fluctuate in the range of 6,800–7,400 yuan/ton. If raw material markets continue to remain firm, acrylic emulsion prices may edge up in early to mid-September. Market participants should be alert to the impact of force majeure factors in the macroeconomic environment on the raw material market.
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