【Introduction】: Amidst ongoing geopolitical shifts, sentiment in the methanol market fluctuates accordingly. Recently, high volatility has become the norm in the domestic methanol market. Against a backdrop of wide price swings, fundamental factors are quietly strengthening their support for the coastal methanol market.

I. Persistently Low International Operating Rates, Import Supply Remains Tight

Recently, the operating rates of international methanol plants have remained below the low points of 2025. The global methanol market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a reduction in China's methanol imports. Additionally, under the influence of tight supply, Asian, European, and American methanol markets have seen strong price increases, widening the price gap with the Chinese market. Expanding regional arbitrage opportunities have further reduced import volumes destined for China.

Currently, due to the international situation, the timeline for restarting international methanol plants remains highly uncertain, sustaining market concerns over import supply. Furthermore, operational constraints on public utilities in some regions may significantly prolong the restart timeline for international plants. Consequently, the recovery of China's methanol import volumes is also expected to be delayed, likely keeping import levels persistently low.

II. Recent Significant Fluctuations in Domestic Regional Price Differentials, Domestic Supply Supplement May Also Show Phased Volatility

While import supply is low, domestic supply remains high, supported by strong production margins. Recently, as some domestic supplies have moved to coastal markets, inventory drawdowns at sampled inland methanol plants have proceeded smoothly. However, due to unstable market sentiment, downstream purchasing has become cautious under high prices, which may impact the pace of future inventory reductions.

From the data, it is evident that since late February, the price differential between port and inland markets has shown a volatile upward trend with significant and pronounced strengthening. Against this backdrop of high volatility in regional price spreads, although inter-regional arbitrage opportunities persist, the volume of inter-regional flows will fluctuate with the size of these arbitrage windows. Additionally, as some downstream users still have rigid demand for imported cargoes, market offtake has improved noticeably during periods of low prices in coastal markets, which may also influence inter-regional cargo flows.

III. Tight Supply in Coastal Methanol Market Unlikely to Ease, Providing Strong Support for Port Markets

Considering the overall supply situation in coastal methanol markets, import supply is expected to remain low, while domestic supply supplements may exhibit some instability. Overall supply is likely to stay tight, suggesting that port methanol inventories may continue their downward trend.

Although the primary driver of recent price volatility in China's methanol market remains shifts in the international landscape, fundamental factors are increasingly underpinning prices. Expectations of a prolonged recovery in import volumes, significant uncertainty around the restart timeline for international plants, and continued inventory drawdowns at ports are collectively strengthening the fundamental support for the coastal market.