Introduction
In 2026, domestic polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) prices experienced a surge followed by a decline: from January to April, driven by a sharp rise in vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) feedstock costs, taking grade 1799 as an example, the spot price in East China rose steadily from 10,450 yuan/ton, peaking at 15,800 yuan/ton in mid-April. However, from May to July, the trend reversed: VAM prices fell back, domestic demand remained persistently weak, and market prices continued to decline. By early July, the mainstream negotiated price for domestic grade 1799 had dropped to 10,500 yuan/ton, down 5,300 yuan/ton from the year's high. Bargaining room for spot goods widened, and it became common for intermediaries to offer price concessions to move inventory.
Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, supported by surging raw material costs and phased stockpiling demand, domestic PVA spot prices hit their yearly high in March. Throughout March, the domestic PVA market showed a unilateral strong rally, starting steady at the beginning of the month and accelerating upward in mid-to-late March. Taking grade 1799 as an example, spot quotations surged to 15,200–16,700 yuan/ton in mid-to-late March, a 52.6% increase from the beginning of the year (9,500–11,400 yuan/ton). Driven by a buying-on-strength mentality, downstream sectors carried out concentrated spring restocking, with rigid demand from textiles and adhesives gradually translating into procurement. High-level transactions faded toward month-end, revealing growing resistance to high prices.
April 2026
In April, the domestic PVA market remained firm at high levels in the first half, while negotiating centers loosened in the second half. In early April, support from high VAM and acetic acid prices, along with upward price adjustments by overseas producers, sustained export orders and kept the market in a price-holding stance. As the month progressed into mid-to-late April, however, geopolitical tensions eased, leading to a sharp drop in high-priced procurement demand for VAM abroad and triggering a downward channel. Cost support quickly eroded. Combined with price suppression in traditional downstream sectors such as textiles, construction, and adhesives, rigid procurement became cautious, with buyers mostly purchasing as needed. Traders who had stockpiled at earlier high prices began to offer discounts, causing high-end negotiating prices to loosen and fall. Producers, however, maintained strong price-holding sentiment and kept their quotations relatively firm.
May 2026
In May, the domestic PVA market continued the price loosening trend seen in April, showing a pattern of slow, creeping declines early in the month, accelerating weakness in mid-to-late May, and downward pressure at low levels toward month-end. Nevertheless, producer ex-factory quotations remained stable, and the monthly average price stayed high. On the cost side, upstream VAM prices continued to decline deeply throughout the month, causing a massive collapse in PVA production cost support. On the supply side, major producers maintained high operating rates, domestic spot supply was ample, and some traders released their earlier high-cost inventory with concentrated discounts, pulling the price center toward mid-to-low levels. On the demand side, the traditional off-season in construction and textile sizing became prominent, with weak rigid demand follow-through. Downstream factories insisted on purchasing as needed to avoid inventory risks, though some sectors relying on domestic substitution demonstrated stronger resistance to price declines, widening grade price differentials. On the export side, overseas buyers resisted the earlier high domestic prices, and export orders fell sequentially, further dragging down the domestic spot market. Pessimism extended into June, and PVA producers began to significantly lower their ex-factory quotations. For grade 1799, high and low-end prices ranged from 12,500 to 13,500 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decline of 17.98%.
July 2026
Entering July, PVA producers continued to ease ex-factory quotations, with some offering preferential release to major clients. Traders held a bearish sentiment and actively cut prices to clear inventory, leading to a further increase in low-priced goods on the market. Weakening cost support, persistently sluggish demand, and clear oversupply pressure in the spot market shifted bargaining power to buyers, who aggressively lowered bid prices. The price center continued to decline. As of today, taking East China grade 1799 as an example, the mainstream average price stands at 10,500 yuan/ton, a 4.55% drop from end-June, with further room for negotiation on some low-priced goods.
Cost Side
On the cost side, the price trend of the main raw material, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), reversed from strong to weak, removing cost support. In March–April, international crude oil rose, boosting ethylene feedstock costs, which drove VAM prices sharply higher. Producers' production costs increased, prompting PVA companies to raise ex-factory prices, with the entire industry following the uptrend. After May, crude oil fluctuated downward, domestic VAM plant operating rates recovered, and supply increased. VAM prices continued to fall, eroding the cost advantage of PVA production, and producers lost the basis for price hikes. In some periods, production margins even shrank, forcing ex-factory quotations to be reduced.
Supply Side
PVA supply-side operating rates remained at medium-to-high levels, with limited planned maintenance, ensuring ample overall supply. Previously, producers prioritized fulfilling export orders, resulting in relatively low circulation of domestic goods. After April, as earlier export orders were gradually completed, more product was released to the domestic market, leading to a slow recovery in market inventories. Domestic spot supply is now in excess, and there is little willingness among producers to undertake large-scale production cuts in the short term. Producers are primarily relying on price reductions to destock.
Demand Side
Domestic downstream demand for PVA is mainly concentrated in sectors such as textile sizing, construction adhesives, paper coatings, VAE emulsions, and water-soluble films. The traditional textile sector is in its off-season, construction material market operations have fallen short of expectations, and end-use factory orders are weak. Downstream companies generally adopt a procurement model based on need and small-lot replenishment, with very few engaging in concentrated stockpiling. Intermediaries show little willingness to build inventory, maintaining a light-position wait-and-see attitude and reducing trading activity. Although latex powder and biodegradable films have promising long-term prospects, their current volumes are limited and cannot drive demand for general-purpose grades. Only high-end specialty grades used in optical films and lithium battery PVA applications have stable orders, but their impact on boosting ordinary PVA grades is limited. Overall, the lagging recovery of downstream demand has become the core factor suppressing PVA prices.
Export Side
For the first half of the year, export performance was generally acceptable. However, as cost support collapsed, buyers in Southeast Asia and India became more cautious, resisting high raw material prices and pushing for lower prices. New overseas order growth was limited, and the role of exports in diverting domestic supply weakened. Excess product has flowed back to the domestic market, exacerbating supply pressure.
Outlook
Looking ahead, in July–August, domestic PVA is likely to continue its weak oscillation and low-level consolidation pattern. Negative factors: the main raw material VAM will find it difficult to rebound significantly in the short term; summer heat brings traditional off-seasons for textiles and construction, making it hard for downstream demand to improve in the near term; and domestic spot inventories are slowly accumulating, maintaining destocking pressure. Positive factors: if VAM prices stabilize or if producers carry out concentrated maintenance or reduce operating rates, or if overseas orders pick up, this could halt further price declines. Price range: for the general-grade 1799 as an example, the short-term mainstream trading range may drop to 9,500–10,500 yuan/ton. Unless crude oil rises sharply or there is large-scale domestic plant shutdown, PVA is unlikely to return to previous highs. In the medium-to-long term, competitive pressure will remain high for ordinary PVA grades, while only high-end functional products will maintain stronger profitability stability.
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