Acrylic ended April on a strong note, while expectations of a loose supply-demand balance in May are expected to dominate and drive prices downwards.

[Introduction] In April, the domestic propylene market closed with a strong upward trend, driven by renewed tightening of supply due to plant maintenance, geopolitical factors raising feedstock costs, and steady downstream demand support. As of April 30, the monthly average propylene price in Shandong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 12% month-on-month. Entering May, geopolitical tailwinds are gradually fading, and market logic is returning to supply-demand fundamentals. The interplay between increasing supply and sustained downstream cost pressures is becoming more pronounced, leading to expectations of a weaker market, with the monthly average price potentially falling to around 8,950 yuan/ton.

I. Supply Side: Maintenance Support Fades, Incremental Supply Expectations Materialize

Figure 1: Trends in Domestic Propylene Production and Capacity Utilization, 2025-2026 (10,000 tons)
Data source: chempricehub Info

Table 1: Overview of Domestic PDH Unit Operating Status (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data source: chempricehub Info

In April, the wave of maintenance in the propylene industry continued to ferment, with supply contraction becoming the core driver of price increases. In May, the tight supply situation will gradually ease. Data shows that in April 2026, domestic propylene capacity utilization fell to 65.9%, down 4.4 percentage points month-on-month. In May, with multiple maintenance units gradually resuming operations, capacity utilization is expected to recover to 66.4%, and supply-side constraints will marginally relax.

As the mainstream production process for propylene, the operating status of PDH units significantly affects spot supply. Currently, a total of 19 PDH units in China are shut down, involving a capacity of 10.61 million tons, reducing daily supply by 20,000-30,000 tons. Entering May, units from Jinneng, Formosa, and others are planned to restart, with monthly production expected to increase by 200,000 tons to 4.85 million tons, further improving the current supply shortage.

However, it should be noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not yet eased completely, and uncertainty in propane feedstock supply remains, which could lead to temporary shutdowns or delayed restarts of operating and pending units, leaving room for supply-side variables.

II. Demand Side: Insufficient Support from Inelastic Demand; Overall Demand Remains Weak

Figure 2: Trends in Downstream Operating Rates, 2025-2026
Data source: chempricehub Info

From the perspective of downstream operating rates, the overall operating rate of mainstream propylene-linked industries weakened in April. The operating rates of key units such as PP granules, PP powder, propylene oxide, and acrylonitrile all declined month-on-month. The most significant declines were seen in PP powder (-8.0%) and PP granules (-7.1%). Only octanol and acrylic acid saw counter-trend increases, up 1.9% and 4.0% month-on-month respectively.

Looking ahead to May, the divergence in downstream operating rates is expected to persist. PP granules and acrylonitrile units are anticipated to see phased recovery, with rates increasing by 4.8 and 2.9 percentage points respectively. In contrast, categories such as PP powder, propylene oxide, octanol, and acrylic acid are expected to see further declines, with octanol experiencing the largest drop of 6.0% month-on-month.

Overall, the chemical end-market is still in a traditional off-season, with limited resilience in inelastic demand. Companies mainly maintain a procurement model based on immediate needs, with generally weak willingness to build inventory actively.

III. Supply-Demand Balance: From Tight to Loose, Fundamentals Weaken

Figure 3: Monthly Supply-Demand Gap for Propylene, 2025-2026 (10,000 tons)
Data source: chempricehub Info

According to supply-demand data forecasts from chempricehub Info, total domestic propylene supply in May is estimated at 4.9 million tons, while total demand is approximately 4.875 million tons, resulting in a slight widening of the surplus to 25,000 tons. This indicates a clear weakening of fundamental support for raw material prices.

Looking at the overall supply-demand pattern, the propylene market is shifting from a previously tight balance to a looser stance in May. As spot supply increases, companies face greater sales pressure. Additionally, with the downstream chemical sector in a traditional demand off-season, procurement follow-through is weak, further capping the potential for spot price rebounds. In the medium to long term, supply surplus is expected to persist, raising the risk of inventory accumulation. The bargaining power along the chain continues to shift downstream, and it may become normal for producers to reduce prices to ease pressure, with profitability under strain. The price trend for propylene is increasingly leaning toward a volatile downward trajectory.

IV. Market Outlook: Weak Expectations for May Rise; Propylene Prices to Decline

Overall, geopolitical drivers are gradually cooling in May, and market logic is returning to supply-demand fundamentals. On the supply side, although units like Qixiang and Junchen are scheduled for maintenance, Weiyuan Chemical continues to ramp up production. Meanwhile, multiple units including Ningbo Formosa, Jinneng Phase I, and Ruihx are expected to restart, steadily releasing incremental supply. On the demand side, downstream chemical products have long faced cost pressures, leaving limited room for incremental raw material purchases. Additionally, some integrated enterprises are flexibly releasing propylene supply, further increasing spot market pressure. In summary, chempricehub Info expects the propylene market to trend weaker in May, with the monthly average price likely falling to around 8,950 yuan/ton.

Given the numerous market disturbances and uncertainty in the subsequent trend, industry participants should monitor the following key factors:

1. Developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the impact of international oil price fluctuations on cost transmission;
2. The progress of domestic propylene unit restarts, temporary maintenance, and load adjustments;
3. Profit recovery in downstream products and changes in inelastic demand procurement and restocking pace.