[Introduction]: With clear increases in domestic supply and weak domestic demand support, market negotiations favor buyers. Coupled with the upcoming May Day holiday, market trading has slowed, sales pressure on holders continues to increase, and the price center has experienced a volatile correction.

1. Market Review (April 27 – April 30)

Table 1: Domestic Vinyl Acetate and Related Product Price Form

| | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key Regions | | | | | |
| East China | 11650 | 10200 | -1450 | -12.45% | RMB/ton |
| Shandong | 11250 | 9850 | -1400 | -12.44% | RMB/ton |
| South China | 11250 | 10350 | -900 | -8.00% | RMB/ton |
| North China | 11000 | 9750 | -1250 | -11.36% | RMB/ton |
| Key Downstream Products | | | | | RMB/ton |
| Product Name | | | | | |
| EVA | 11800 | 11600 | -200 | -1.69% | RMB/ton |
| Polyvinyl Alcohol | 15850 | 15850 | 0 | 0.00% | RMB/ton |
| Key Related Products | | | | | RMB/ton |
| Product Name | | | | | |
| Glacial Acetic Acid | 3450 | 3050 | -400 | -11.59% | RMB/ton |
| Calcium Carbide | 2160 | 2310 | 150 | +2.94% | RMB/ton |
| Ethylene (Northeast Asia) | 1370 | 1320 | -50 | -3.65% | USD/ton |

In early April, the impact of geopolitical tensions persisted. Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz widened the spot supply gap in the European market. Export quotations for Chinese vinyl acetate rose accordingly, and companies actively operated, exacerbating the tight supply situation domestically. On the domestic supply side, Fujian Haiquan's plant remained shut for maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical had scheduled maintenance in mid-to-late April, while calcium carbide-based units operated at high utilization rates. This created a structurally tight supply situation, with market participants generally reluctant to sell at low prices. Coupled with a surge in the price of the key raw material, glacial acetic acid, on the cost side, the vinyl acetate market experienced synchronized substantial increases in price, cost, and profit, driven by supply, cost, and export support. In mid-April, geopolitical tensions eased temporarily, international buyers' acceptance of high prices declined, and export negotiations peaked and then fell. Meanwhile, domestic supply continued to increase, raw material prices on the cost side dropped sharply, multiple downstream EVA units underwent maintenance shutdowns, small-volume users had low operating incentives due to difficulty in passing on costs, and rigid demand support weakened, causing high-priced offers to disappear. In late April, the pull of external demand on the domestic market weakened significantly, and the market still relied on domestic demand support. However, against the backdrop of clear increases in domestic supply and weak domestic demand support, market negotiations favored buyers. Coupled with the approaching May Day holiday, sales pressure on holders continued to increase, and the vinyl acetate price center experienced a volatile correction.

2. Data Analysis

Table 2: Domestic Vinyl Acetate and Related Product Data Form

| | | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product Name | | | | | | |
| Vinyl Acetate | Production Margin | 3902 | 3279 | -623 | -15.97% | RMB/ton |
| | Capacity Utilization | 86.7% | 85.8% | -0.9% | -1.04% | % |
| Product Name | Key Downstream | | | | | |
| EVA | Capacity Utilization | 67.5% | 61.2% | -6.3% | -7.33% | % |
| Polyvinyl Alcohol | Capacity Utilization | 60.5% | 60.5% | 0% | 0% | % |

The cost curve for vinyl acetate tracked the price curve closely. From January to February, costs remained in the range of RMB 5,100-5,400/ton, with margins between RMB 500-800/ton, showing relatively moderate fluctuations. Entering March, both the cost and price of vinyl acetate rose rapidly, margins increased accordingly, peaked in mid-to-late April, and then showed a declining trend.

Affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East, multiple overseas units were shut down or reduced production. Meanwhile, support from the raw material side and supply side increased, causing USD offers to rise continuously. Due to the stable operation of China's vinyl acetate plants, overseas demand turned to China. The arbitrage window for China's vinyl acetate exports opened smoothly. Calcium carbide-based units increased operating enthusiasm, many ramping up to full capacity, leading to an upward trend in capacity utilization. On the demand side, calcium carbide-based units mostly co-produce polyvinyl alcohol. While some companies increased external sales of vinyl acetate, they lowered operating rates for polyvinyl alcohol. EVA producers faced increased cost pressure and insufficient downstream orders, leading to concentrated maintenance shutdowns of multiple units, causing a broad decline in capacity utilization and reducing the demand for vinyl acetate.

3. Post-Holiday Trend Outlook

Table 3: Domestic Vinyl Acetate Data Forecast Form

| | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China Market Price | 10200 | 8000 | -2200 | -21.57% | USD/ton |
| Capacity Utilization | 85.8% | 78% | -7.8% | -9.09% | RMB/ton |

Looking ahead to May, there are no confirmed maintenance shutdowns on the vinyl acetate supply side. Zhejiang Petrochemical's unit is scheduled for a restart at the end of the month, while other units are expected to operate stably. On the demand side, some previously shut EVA units may restart, potentially increasing demand. Other downstream sectors are expected to maintain rigid demand with no incremental expectations. Spot supply is likely to remain ample during the month. Coupled with continued weakening cost-side support, market prices are expected to continue their decline. In June, support from the cost side and export side is expected to weaken. On the supply side, a new capacity unit is still expected to come online. Downstream demand support is limited. The supply-demand contradiction persists, and vinyl acetate prices are expected to show a volatile correction trend.