Introduction: Before the May Day holiday, the domestic n-butanol market experienced a volatile downturn, with prices continuously hitting new lows. Downstream players operated cautiously, showing limited inquiry and procurement interest. However, the subsequent sharp rise in raw material propylene prices increased cost support. During the holiday, the domestic n-butanol market stabilized with low-price consolidation, and low-price transactions saw some recovery.
1. Market Review (April 27 - April 30)
| 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | Change (%) | Unit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n-Butanol | |||||
| Shandong | 7800 | 7500 | -300 | -3.85% | CNY/ton |
| Jiangsu | 7900 | 7600 | -300 | -3.80% | CNY/ton |
| South China | 8100 | 7800 | -300 | -3.70% | CNY/ton |
| Key Downstream Products | |||||
| Butyl Acrylate | 10900 | 9500 | -1400 | -12.84% | CNY/ton |
| n-Butyl Acetate | 7600 | 7500 | -100 | -1.32% | CNY/ton |
| DBP | 9050 | 8800 | -250 | -2.76% | CNY/ton |
| Key Upstream Product | |||||
| Propylene | 9216 | 9314 | 98 | 1.06% | CNY/ton |
Before the May Day holiday, domestic n-butanol prices kept declining, mainly due to poor market demand. The decline halted later as cost-side support increased. It is learned that before the holiday, operating rates of major downstream plants gradually decreased, reducing demand for n-butanol. Meanwhile, pre-holiday stocking sentiment was not strong, inquiries were limited, and resistance to high prices was high. Consequently, overall market transactions were poor, and market participants operated cautiously. Production plants saw inventory buildup due to weak sales, and they kept lowering ex-factory prices to stimulate sales, but the effect was limited. As the holiday approached, international crude oil prices drove a significant rise in propylene prices. After n-butanol prices fell near the cost line, the increased cost pressure supported prices to stabilize. Additionally, downstream buying interest increased when prices were low. By the last working day before the holiday, the major ex-factory price in Shandong was 7500 CNY/ton.
2. Data Analysis
| Product | Indicator | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | Change (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n-Butanol | Production Margin | 438 | -64 | -502 | -114.61% | CNY/ton |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 86.6% | 86.6% | ||||
| Key Downstream Products | ||||||
| Butyl Acrylate | Production Margin | 1278.73 | 187.69 | -1091.04 | -85.32% | CNY/ton |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 61.40% | 61.62% | 0.02% | |||
| n-Butyl Acetate | Production Margin | 276 | 595 | 319 | 115.58% | CNY/ton |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 45.50% | 48.91% | 3.41% | |||
| DBP | Production Margin | 479 | 398 | -81 | -16.91% | CNY/ton |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 62.60% | 62.60% |
Looking at the profitability of n-butanol and major downstream products, margins for most products decreased, except for n-butyl acetate which showed an increase. It is learned that before the holiday, international crude oil drove a sharp increase in propylene prices, significantly raising n-butanol costs. However, n-butanol prices were still declining, causing domestic n-butanol margins to turn negative. Among downstream products, margins for butyl acrylate and DBP both declined to varying degrees, with butyl acrylate seeing the largest drop due to its continuous sharp price decline. n-Butyl acetate prices fell less, so its margin showed a slight increase.
During the holiday, propylene prices in Shandong continued to rise. It is reported that Shandong propylene offers were around 9700-9800 CNY/ton, up about 120 CNY/ton from before the holiday. n-Butanol raw material costs rose by about 74 CNY/ton, pushing the theoretical cost of n-butanol in Shandong to around 7638 CNY/ton. During the holiday, Shandong n-butanol ex-factory prices remained at 7600 CNY/ton. Based on spot prices, Shandong n-butanol plants were losing about 38 CNY/ton.
Before the May Day holiday, domestic n-butanol plant operating rates slowly increased. Among major downstream sectors, butyl acrylate and n-butyl acetate plants also gradually increased their operating rates, while DBP operating rates continued to decline.
Butyl acrylate operating rate was 61.62%, up 0.22 percentage points. Jiangsu Sanmu maintained low-load operation. n-Butyl acetate operating rate was 48.91%, up 3.41 percentage points, with Guangxi Xintiande plant restarting and resuming production. DBP operating rate was 62.60%, down 3.16 percentage points, with Henan Chery plant reducing to low-load operation.
3. Post-Holiday Outlook
| 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change | Change (%) | Unit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Raw Material Price | 9630 | 9750 | 120 | 1.25% | CNY/ton |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 87% | 87% | 0 | ||
| Butyl Acrylate Capacity Utilization Rate | 62% | 63% | 1% | ||
| DBP Capacity Utilization Rate | 63% | 63% | 0 |
In summary, looking at n-butanol costs: propylene prices remained strong during the holiday, but high-priced propylene transactions slowed somewhat, with increased resistance. After the holiday, a pullback from high prices is possible, but n-butanol will still face strong cost pressure. Therefore, cost support for n-butanol prices is expected to remain robust. On the supply side, domestic n-butanol plant operating rates are relatively stable. After the holiday, new capacity is expected to come online, raising operating rates. However, one unit of Anqing Shuguang n-butanol is scheduled for turnaround after the holiday, and Shaanxi Yanchang also has maintenance plans. On the demand side, downstream operating rates are expected to increase after the holiday. Given limited pre-holiday stocking, post-holiday inquiries and transaction volumes are expected to improve. Downstream buying is anticipated to remain mainly on a need-to-buy basis, seeking low prices. Low-price transactions are expected to be active, and the domestic n-butanol market center is likely to consolidate within a narrow range.
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