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The storage segment is now the real demand engine, not EVs. Storage cell output jumped to 41% of total battery production, and overseas utility-scale projects are front-loading orders. This structural shift means lithium demand is less tied to auto sales cycles, which could support prices even if EV growth slows. Watch for policy risks like battery tax rebate changes in 2027.
The 'strong reality' is partly self-reinforcing—low inventories force downstream buyers to pay up, but this also incentivizes new supply. The key swing factor is Jiangxi's lepidolite restart timing. If those mines resume before year-end, the tightness could ease quickly. For buyers, locking in Q4 volumes now via term contracts may be prudent given the bullish seasonal demand.
The strategic reserve plan is the wildcard. Beijing is building lithium stockpiles to buy low and sell high, which could smooth price volatility. But note that most new Tibetan capacity won't hit until 2028-2030. Near-term supply still leans on imported spodumene, so overseas mine disruptions remain a bigger price driver than domestic salt lake ramp-ups.