Unsaturated Polyester Resin Market Review and Outlook for H1 2026

Introduction: In the first half of 2026, due to the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, regional energy supply, shipping channels, and the operation of the chemical industry chain face multiple uncertainties. Against this backdrop, raw material prices showed a strong upward trend, providing solid support for the domestic unsaturated polyester resin market. In the first quarter, unsaturated polyester resin prices fluctuated and rose, with the sustained upward trend driving some recovery in end-user purchasing willingness. Meanwhile, most of the capacity expansion projects planned for the first half of the year were postponed to the second half, leading to market saturation and persistently low factory operating rates, with overall supply appearing weak. In this landscape, an export-oriented approach became a key path for the industry to break through.

In the second half of 2026, the trend of capacity expansion in the unsaturated polyester resin industry continues. Companies such as Anhui Fangxin, Suizhou Platinum, and Heli New Materials plan to release a total of approximately 547,000 tons of new capacity, intensifying industry competition. Although the third quarter is traditionally a off-season for downstream demand, the issue of overcapacity is worsening, and the market is dominated by low-price competition. Fundamental demand has not improved, and market saturation coupled with insufficient consumption momentum continues to pressure prices and profit levels. It is expected that the mainstream price of 196# resin in the Changzhou area will remain in the 8,100-8,200 RMB/ton range.

1. Market Review for the First Half of the Year

Table 1: Comparison of Domestic Unsaturated Polyester Resin Market Prices (Jan-Jun 2026 vs 2025) – East China, South China, Shandong, Hebei

Source: chempricehub

In the first half of 2026, the domestic unsaturated polyester resin market showed an overall trend of rising first and then falling. Taking East China as an example, the price peak appeared in early April, reaching 11,000 RMB/ton; the low point occurred at the end of June, falling to 9,200 RMB/ton, a difference of 1,800 RMB/ton. This round of price fluctuations was primarily driven by the alternating influence of three factors: macroeconomic policies, raw material costs, and supply-demand dynamics. January-February: Cost side remained firm, with raw materials like styrene and dicyclopentadiene prices fluctuating upwards. Combined with the release of end-user stockpiling demand around the Chinese New Year, this pushed unsaturated polyester resin companies' quotations to rise steadily. March to early April: Downstream and end-user operations gradually recovered. Concurrently, the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East introduced multiple uncertainties for regional energy supply, shipping channels, and the chemical industry chain, driving raw material prices strongly upwards. With strong cost support, resin prices increased significantly, creating a market characterized by "prices without transactions". From mid-April onwards: End users' acceptance of high prices decreased, price transmission faced obstacles, and the supply-demand contradiction gradually emerged. Traders faced increasing pressure to sell, and market sentiment shifted from supporting prices in early April to promotional concessions in late April. May: Upstream raw material prices weakened, reducing cost support. Market sentiment gradually shifted from cautious price support in early May to proactive concessions in late May, leading to simultaneous contraction in prices and trading volumes. June: The easing of the US-Iran conflict led to a drop in crude oil prices, causing raw material prices like styrene to fall accordingly, further weakening cost support. Combined with the arrival of the traditional off-season, downstream demand remained persistently weak, with limited restocking for immediate needs. The continuously falling prices dampened market transactions, resulting in sustained declines in both factory ex-works prices and spot prices of unsaturated polyester resin.

2. US-Iran Conflict Raises Raw Material Costs, but Weak Demand Limits Upward Price Potential

In June 2025, upstream raw material prices for styrene, maleic anhydride, phthalic anhydride, and propylene glycol saw varying degrees of increase but an overall upward trend. The increases were 485 RMB/ton, 1,715 RMB/ton, 1,700 RMB/ton, and 5,050 RMB/ton, with growth rates of 7.01%, 35.65%, 30.09%, and 162.90%, respectively. The minimum price spread between unsaturated polyester resin and styrene narrowed to around 1,800 RMB/ton, increasing cost pressure for the industry. With raw materials continuously rising, cost burdens increased. Affected by multiple factors, the upward momentum for unsaturated polyester resin market prices was weak, and profitability declined.

3. Market Shows Signs of Bottoming Out; Risks and Opportunities Coexist in the Second Half

3.1 Core Market Risks in the Second Half:
The overall unsaturated polyester resin production capacity is ample, with new units still scheduled to come on stream in the second half of the year. However, July and August are the off-season for end-user demand, and the market is expected to maintain a low-level consolidation trend in the short term. From the cost perspective, after the easing of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum. The supply of raw materials such as styrene, maleic anhydride, and phthalic anhydride is recovering steadily, leaving room for monomer prices to decline further. Once upstream raw materials continue to weaken, the cost support for unsaturated polyester resin will further loosen, potentially leading to an increase in low-price selling in the market and intensifying price competition pressure in the industry.

3.2 Phased Opportunities in the Second Half:
Current unsaturated polyester resin market prices still have room for further declines and have not yet reached a cyclical bottom. As prices gradually decrease, it may stimulate downstream and end-user willingness to stock up at low prices, thereby gradually reviving market trading atmosphere. Additionally, September and October are traditionally the peak procurement seasons. Downstream demand is expected to be released intensively during this period, leading to marginal improvement in raw material procurement needs, potentially driving a significant increase in actual transaction volumes of unsaturated polyester resin. Furthermore, consumption expectations for the second half of 2026 are expected to be better than the first half. International tensions are easing, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is resuming, and various consumption subsidy policies are being introduced, which may lead to a gradual recovery of the domestic economy. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", downstream demand is expected to see a certain degree of recovery.

3.3 Outlook for Future Trends:
Considering multiple factors such as supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and seasonal fluctuations, the unsaturated polyester resin market in the second half is expected to be in a phase of bottoming out at low levels. July and August are traditional demand off-seasons, coupled with ample supply, suggesting the market will maintain a weak consolidation, with prices continuously exploring lows. Entering September, downstream restocking demand will be gradually released, and unsaturated polyester resin prices are expected to stop falling and rebound slightly. However, the overall overcapacity situation in the industry has not fundamentally changed, limiting the rebound potential and making a strong trending rally unlikely. The expected market price range for products is: mainstream domestic material reference price 8,100 – 8,300 RMB/ton. The annual market is characterized by "pressure in the off-season, slight recovery in the peak season". Industry companies should flexibly adjust operating rates and reasonably control inventory levels to mitigate operational risks arising from significant fluctuations in raw material and product prices.