Introduction: After the holiday, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market opened with a volatile downward trend. The supply-demand contradiction was further intensified by the accumulation of inventories over the holiday period. From a cost perspective, while the price of the raw material propylene oxide (PO) rose somewhat, providing a degree of cost support, this support was gradually eroded under the pressure of continuously increasing supply. As supply volumes continued to rise, some plants saw their inventories gradually build up. On the demand side, post-holiday downstream end-users mainly maintained replenishment for immediate needs, with a cautious purchasing attitude. Additionally, as earlier export orders were gradually completed and new orders were insufficient, overall market trading sentiment weakened, subsequently putting downward pressure on negotiation focuses.

I. Cost Side: Weakening Support Logic, Unable to Provide Price Floor
Post-holiday, the cost-side support for DMC was clearly insufficient and failed to act as a "safety net" to curb price declines.

PO Transesterification Route: The raw material propylene oxide experienced a strong rebound during the May Day holiday before weakening again. The PO market showed improvement in the first week after the holiday, leading to an increase in the cost base for DMC, but this did not drive prices higher.
Methanol Carbonylation Route: Although methanol prices remained relatively firm due to coal cost support, plants using this process faced relatively greater cost pressure.
EO Transesterification Route: This route is at a significant disadvantage given the high price of ethylene oxide; consequently, plants using this process have mainly resorted to reducing loads or shutting down.

Although prices have fallen near the cost line for some processes (with non-integrated plants even incurring losses), the high degree of industry integration means that many manufacturers with upstream raw material support are unwilling to halt production on a large scale at this stage in order to maintain the operation of their industrial chains. This renders the cost support "virtually ineffective" after the holiday.

II. Supply Side: Rising Operating Rates and High Inventory Pressure
Pressure on the supply side is one of the core factors leading to the sharp post-holiday price decline.

Significant Increase in Supply: During the holiday, logistics and transportation were restricted, slowing down product shipments and leading to a passive accumulation of inventories at manufacturers. After the holiday, the domestic weekly capacity utilization rate for DMC rebounded to 66.46%, an increase of 3.95 percentage points from the previous period. Previously idled units were gradually restarted—for example, plants such as Jingmen Yuanhan continued to operate at full capacity—resulting in a substantial increase in market spot circulation within a short time after the holiday. Manufacturers had a strong desire to destock. Faced with high inventories, the primary task for producers after the holiday was not to raise prices but to "reduce stocks." The continuous downward trend exacerbated market pessimism, with downstream users generally adopting a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality, further unbalancing supply and demand.

IV. Demand Side: Weak Post-Holiday Recovery, Procurement Limited to Immediate Needs
Post-holiday demand performance fell far short of expectations, which is the fundamental reason for the price competition.

Downstream Lithium Battery and Electrolyte Sector: While demand was acceptable, there was a clear sentiment to suppress prices, limiting the ability to pass costs downstream. After the holiday, downstream electrolyte solvent manufacturers were still digesting their own raw material inventories, making them extremely cautious about placing new DMC orders, only replenishing in small quantities for immediate needs.
Polycarbonate Industry: Operating rates experienced some decline, reducing consumption of industrial-grade DMC.
Traditional Sectors (Coatings, Adhesives, etc.): The pace of post-holiday resumption of production and operations was generally slow. Additionally, with the approach of the rainy season in southern China, some outdoor construction was restricted, slowing the consumption rate of solvent-grade DMC.

V. Market Outlook
In summary, in the short term, the domestic DMC market will remain trapped in the triple dilemma of "weak cost support, high supply pressure, and slow demand recovery." In the near term, the market will continue to face pressure. Given that the current capacity utilization rate remains above 66%, and there is unlikely to be a qualitative leap in downstream electrolyte demand before mid-to-late May, the market lacks a driving force for a rebound. However, it is worth noting that the current price of 3,500 yuan/ton in the Shandong region is already at a historical medium-to-low level. If prices continue to fall, approaching the 3,300-3,500 yuan/ton threshold, it may trigger a new round of production cuts or shutdowns at small-scale, high-cost units. Only then would the market truly find a basis for bottoming out.