Introduction
Recently, the domestic methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market has continued to show an upward trend. Taking the East China market as an example, the price of MEK has risen from 7,050 yuan/ton in early March to the current 13,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 97.16%, reaching the highest level in nearly three years. This rapid price surge is primarily driven by rising raw material costs and increased export orders, leading to a tight balance in domestic spot supply and supporting the rapid climb in MEK prices.

I. Strong Rally in the Domestic MEK Market
From the perspective of the raw material etherified C4 market, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in early March triggered concerns in the international market. Rising crude oil prices benefited related markets like etherified C4 from the cost side, fueling speculative sentiment within the region and pushing prices sharply higher. The benchmark price in the Shandong market rose to 7,350 yuan/ton, reaching the highest level of the year. Supported by this, the MEK market officially began its upward trajectory. However, with frequent fluctuations in crude oil prices, a turning point in market sentiment emerged. Industry players engaged in a stampede to sell off goods, causing a brief decline in etherified C4 prices. Yet, as geopolitical tensions showed no substantial easing, market focus shifted from speculative news-driven trading to expectations of low supply. After hitting bottom, etherified C4 prices rebounded and continued to fluctuate at high levels. Consequently, the driving logic of the MEK market shifted from cost-driven factors to export-driven momentum. Due to the ongoing Middle East situation, some international MEK units have reduced operating rates due to insufficient raw material supply, highlighting the export advantage of Chinese MEK. Production plants have secured orders smoothly and significantly raised offer prices, with single-day increases reaching 3,000 yuan/ton, setting a new high in nearly three years. Holders are generally reluctant to sell, resulting in scarce market offers, with most actual transactions awaiting downstream counteroffers and negotiations. However, domestic downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives have limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand. Market trading activity is subdued, and high-priced spot transactions are limited. The recovery in terminal consumption remains weaker than expected, presenting a divergent market pattern characterized by "weak domestic demand and strong exports."

II. Reduced Global Supply Drives Significant Price Increase for MEK in Europe
Recently, the European MEK market has experienced a strong rally, with spot prices climbing to阶段性 highs, primarily supported by tight supply. As of this writing, the FD Northwest Europe spot price is 2,900 euros/ton, at the highest level in recent years. Due to limited available spot supply locally, terminal plants have had to purchase raw materials through various channels. Supply is expected to remain tight in April. Since the Middle East incident, imported supplies from Asia have been constrained by logistics disruptions. Simultaneously, European production units have also been affected by upstream supply limitations, reducing available volumes. Upward pressure is expected to persist in the short term.

III. Rising Operating Rates and Strong Exports Maintain Tight Supply-Demand Balance
As MEK prices rise to multi-year highs, industry profitability has significantly improved, attracting the restart of some previously idled units and driving up industry operating rates. As of this writing, the MEK industry capacity utilization rate stands at 71.52%, the highest level this year. Currently, major producers are securing export orders smoothly, with orders scheduled through May. Export prices are significantly higher than domestic levels, providing the main support for the current market. Overall, against the backdrop of a slight increase in supply and持续强劲的 exports, the market supply-demand格局 is expected to remain in a tight balance, providing favorable support for prices.

IV. Outlook for Future Market Trends
Considering both supply-demand fundamentals and raw material trends, the MEK market is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term. On the supply side, there are no planned maintenance shutdowns in the industry for the near future, so operating rates are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in supply volume. Demand exhibits a pattern of domestic weakness and external strength. Short-term market movements will still depend primarily on the strength and sustainability of export orders, followed by whether domestic demand can effectively catch up. As long as no significant weakening signals emerge in exports, the market is likely to continue operating at high levels, although resistance to high-priced transactions in the domestic trade will gradually accumulate. In the longer term, the market will continue to seek a dynamic balance between export-driven momentum and weak domestic demand, with prices potentially showing high-level fluctuations. Close attention should be paid to changes in the international economic situation, the pace of export order intake, and the actual recovery of domestic demand, as these will be key indicators for judging market trends.