【Introduction】Since late April, the domestic methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market has experienced a trend of high-level declines followed by bottoming out and stabilizing. Primarily constrained by domestic demand, some factories saw poor performance in new orders and had to offer concessions to secure deals. Holders’ sentiment weakened, even leading to panic selling at one point. However, support was found near the 10,000 yuan/ton threshold, triggering a phased rebound and an overall low-level stabilization.

I. Demand Constraints Lead to High-Level Market Declines

In mid-April, persistently weak demand in the MEK market gradually increased selling pressure upstream. Holders’ sentiment turned bearish, with a stronger inclination to offer discounts, causing market quotes to start loosening. As transaction prices moved lower, bearish sentiment among industry participants intensified. Driven by a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality, downstream buyers became more cautious, with some factories increasing pressure for lower counteroffers. Meanwhile, inquiries in the export market cooled, reducing support for the domestic market. With a pronounced supply-demand imbalance, the market experienced a phase of volume-free price declines. By the end of the month, after prices fell to a certain low, downstream end-user factories began tentatively restocking, leading to a recovery in market trading volumes. Just-in-time demand provided support for the market bottom, halting the decline and triggering a slight rebound. After the May Day holiday, factories saw decent new order fulfillment, gradually easing inventory pressure. With a reduced willingness to lower prices further, holders’ sentiment gained support. Additionally, as port inventories were gradually consumed and spot supply tightened somewhat, the market’s offer focus edged up. However, as the phased procurement wrapped up, market activity returned to a subdued level, with high-priced transactions difficult to sustain.

II. Loose Supply Pattern; Demand Drags Market Down

Recently, domestic MEK plant operations have remained stable, with capacity utilization hovering around 70%. At the end of April, Anhui Zhonghuifa’s unit experienced a three-day shutdown due to a steam supply cut from the power plant, but the short duration had minimal impact on output. On the demand side, downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives have limited acceptance of high prices, mostly maintaining procurement based on actual needs. Domestic market trading has been mediocre, unable to drive price increases. The current core support for the market comes from ample export orders. During the order fulfillment cycle of production plants, the market’s supply-demand balance is expected to remain weak, providing support for the price floor.

III. Limited Cost Support; Industry Profit at High Level

In the feedstock market, after the May Day holiday, the Shandong etherified market experienced volatile declines, with transaction focuses shifting lower. Affected by the holiday, upstream and downstream bargaining sentiment was limited, allowing prices to stabilize temporarily. However, due to maintenance shutdowns at some independent alkylation units, fundamentals became more constrained. To ensure sales, factories across various regions proactively offered discounts, forcing prices lower. The decline in feedstock prices has improved profitability for MEK plants. As of the time of writing, the theoretical profit for the MEK industry stands at around 3,200 yuan/ton, a relatively high level in recent years.

IV. Market Outlook

In the short term, the domestic MEK market is expected to maintain a weak equilibrium pattern of subdued domestic demand with export orders as a support base. Plant operating rates are likely to remain stable, with total industry output growing modestly. Since major factories have pending export orders to fulfill, the incremental supply is not fully translating into domestic pressure. Export orders are effectively diverting domestic supply and mitigating the risk of inventory buildup. However, domestic trading activity is expected to remain lackluster, providing limited upward price momentum. The MEK market is likely to continue its current weak equilibrium state. In the longer term, market trends will depend more on the execution progress of export orders and demand conditions in overseas markets. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the international economic landscape, the pace of export order acceptance, and the actual recovery of domestic demand—these will be key variables in determining market direction.