Lead: The recent strength in the aniline market is driven primarily by three converging factors: continued tightening of spot supply due to delayed restarts of units under maintenance and unplanned disruptions, cost support from pure benzene holding at elevated levels, and steady digestion from downstream just-in-demand purchases and export pickups. Together, these have pushed prices upward.
Due to a sharp decline in international crude oil prices, cost-side support for pure benzene has weakened noticeably. On the fundamentals side, pure benzene units that were previously under maintenance have been restarting successively, domestic supply is increasing steadily, and import arrivals are gradually recovering. The previously tight spot supply situation continues to improve, and holders are increasingly willing to sell. Downstream operating rates remain low, with procurement focused on essential needs at lower prices. There is clear resistance to high-priced feedstock, and market transactions are subdued. Overall, the downward shift in pure benzene prices this week is mainly attributed to the dual pressures of cost collapse and weakening supply-demand fundamentals.
Affected by the failure of units under earlier maintenance to return on schedule, along with unplanned disruptions at other plants, spot supply has tightened further. Market buying sentiment is robust, downstream players are actively making inquiries, and producers are holding back sales, which has supported multiple rounds of aniline price increases. On the demand side, major downstream sectors are maintaining a normal follow-up pace. The volume of merchant product sold externally by plants remains low, resulting in an overall operational pattern of "tight supply with rising prices, underpinned by essential demand." On the cost side, pure benzene remains at high levels, market confidence is firm, and profitability in the aniline industry continues to sit at elevated levels.
Looking at price transmission along the industrial chain, aniline's upward momentum has been smoothly passed down to end users. Although upstream feedstock and MDI markets are weak, the primary spot buyers—rubber additives—have successfully followed feedstock prices higher, with restocking proceeding at a steady pace and market demand expectations remaining favorable.
Table 1: Aniline Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Avg. | Previous Period Avg. | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure benzene | East China | 7,960 | 8,220 | -260 | -3.16% |
| Shandong | 7,886 | 8,118 | -232 | -2.86% | |
| Hydrogenated benzene | East China | 7,975 | 8,175 | -200 | -2.45% |
| Aniline | East China | 13,620 | 12,320 | 1,300 | 10.55% |
| Shandong | 13,500 | 12,180 | 1,320 | 10.84% | |
| Polymeric MDI | 44V20/M20S/5005 | 16,200 | 17,100 | -900 | -5.26% |
| Accelerator | M | 20,500 | 19,300 | 1,200 | 6.22% |
| CZ | 25,300 | 23,500 | 1,800 | 7.66% | |
| Antioxidant | 4020 | 20,800 | 19,500 | 1,300 | 6.67% |
| RD | 17,500 | 15,800 | 1,700 | 10.76% |
Although downstream players show some resistance to high-priced feedstock, most major downstream sectors are maintaining normal operating loads. Steady release of essential domestic demand, coupled with continued drawdowns on export orders, has kept aniline plant inventories at low levels.
Table 2: Domestic Aniline Unit Maintenance Schedule
| Plant | Capacity (10,000 t/y) | Maintenance Reason | Start Date | End Date | Days | Output Loss This Period (10,000 t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dongying Caijin | 6 | Planned | 2026/7/9 | 2026/8/26 | 48 | 0.11 |
| A plant in Shandong | 72 | Planned | 2026/8/3 | 2026/8/27 | 24 | 1.51 |
| Jiangsu Yangnong | 3 | Unplanned | 2026/8/13 | 2026/8/30 | 17 | 0.06 |
| Nanjing Chemical | 10 | Unplanned | 2026/8/10 | 2026/8/30 | 20 | 0.21 |
On the unit front, Nanjing Chemical, Dongying Caijin, and Jiangsu Yangnong, which had entered maintenance earlier, did not return to operation as scheduled. Reduced operating loads at northern plants have also intensified expectations of a tight supply side, continuing to drive aniline prices upward.
Looking ahead to the next period, although the gradual return of idled units will lift output, resilience in downstream domestic demand and export orders persists. Combined with pure benzene holding at high levels and aniline's own substantial profit margins providing underlying support, market expectations of firm supply-demand dynamics are expected to continue. Shandong aniline prices are projected to consolidate around CNY 13,400/ton.
Comments
0