The rise in dual raw materials drives up costs, leading to a strong and volatile trend in DBP prices. | phthalic anhydride 85-44-9 Price Impact

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Introduction: Recently, the domestic DBP market experienced a significant surge driven by costs, but struggled to maintain high prices due to weak sales. It subsequently followed the downward trend as raw material prices began to fall.

I. DBP Market Prices Surge Then Retreat

Recently, domestic DBP market prices rose rapidly following a sharp increase in raw material costs, then quickly retreated. Initially, prices of raw materials n-butanol and phthalic anhydride surged due to a rapid rise in international crude oil, which drove consecutive significant increases in the prices of propylene and ortho-xylene. Consequently, DBP production costs grew rapidly, with substantial increases exerting strong upward pressure on DBP prices. This also stimulated increased purchasing enthusiasm from some downstream buyers seeking lower prices. Market inquiries and trading activity were once lively, with smooth factory shipments, leading to a rapid climb in DBP market prices. As of March 24, the mainstream DBP price in the Henan region was 9,900 RMB/ton, an increase of 950 RMB/ton (up 10.61%) from March 19.

Table 1: Domestic DBP Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Market | 2026/3/19 | 2026/3/24 | Change (Value) | Change (%) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Shandong | 9,350 | 10,300 | +950 | +10.16% |
| Henan | 8,950 | 9,900 | +950 | +10.61% |
| North China | 9,050 | 10,000 | +950 | +10.50% |
| South China | 9,650 | 10,300 | +650 | +6.74% |

Data Source: Chempricehub News

After domestic DBP prices peaked, downstream resistance emerged and grew. Market participants became cautious in their operations, with a noticeable decline in purchasing intent. This led to thin trading activity, hindered factory shipments, difficulty in passing on high costs downstream, and a gradual inventory build-up. Subsequently, raw material n-butanol and phthalic anhydride prices also began to retreat from highs as high costs proved difficult to pass on and market transactions were poor. DBP production costs fell alongside the declining raw material prices. Coupled with continued price resistance from end-users and dismal transactions, production factories slowly lowered ex-factory prices for adjustment, but the overall effect was less than ideal. As of March 27, the mainstream DBP price in the Henan region was 9,650 RMB/ton, a decrease of 250 RMB/ton (down 2.53%) from March 24.

Table 2: Domestic DBP Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Market | 2026/3/24 | 2026/3/27 | Change (Value) | Change (%) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Shandong | 10,300 | 10,100 | -200 | -1.94% |
| Henan | 9,900 | 9,650 | -250 | -2.53% |
| North China | 10,000 | 9,800 | -200 | -2.00% |
| South China | 10,300 | 10,000 | -300 | -2.91% |

Data Source: Chempricehub News

II. Raw Material Fluctuations Drive DBP Price Volatility

This recent surge and retreat in domestic DBP prices was heavily influenced by costs. Regarding raw material n-butanol, geopolitical tensions led to higher international crude oil prices, significantly impacting feedstock propylene, causing supply reductions and substantial price increases. This rapidly raised n-butanol production costs, strengthening cost support for its price. Additionally, n-butanol factories have been operating with low inventories for an extended period, creating a spot market situation where supply falls short of demand, further contributing to consecutive n-butanol price hikes. However, later stages saw downstream resistance to high prices, making cost pass-through difficult and leading to consecutive significant price declines. Simultaneously, the other major raw material, phthalic anhydride, was affected by expectations of reduced ortho-xylene production. The tightening supply of ortho-xylene intensified, leading to output reductions or shutdowns at some ortho-xylene-based phthalic anhydride units, significantly pushing up domestic prices for this type. In contrast, the naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride sector saw limited price increases due to an oversupply of feedstock industrial naphthalene. As of March 27, Hebei naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride prices rose by 50 RMB/ton to 8,050 RMB/ton compared to March 19, while Shandong n-butanol prices increased by 310 RMB/ton to 7,885 RMB/ton. Calculated DBP production costs were around 9,159 RMB/ton, up 198 RMB/ton from March 19, with gross profit around 941 RMB/ton, an increase of 552 RMB/ton from March 19.

Table 3: DBP Cost-Profit Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | 2026/3/19 | 2026/3/27 | Change (Value) | Change (%) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Shandong n-Butanol | 7,575 | 7,885 | +310 | +4.09% |
| Hebei Naphthalene-based PA | 8,000 | 8,050 | +50 | +0.62% |
| Shandong Cost | 8,961 | 9,159 | +198 | +2.21% |
| Shandong Profit | 389 | 941 | +552 | +141.90% |

Data Source: Chempricehub News

III. Market Outlook – Raw Materials Fluctuate at High Levels, Cost Support Drives DBP Price Volatility

Firstly, regarding raw material n-butanol, supply is expected to remain relatively tight in the short term. However, the ability to pass on high costs downstream is limited. Therefore, n-butanol prices are forecast to fluctuate and consolidate at high levels. For the other raw material, phthalic anhydride, the supply-demand gap is widening, but ortho-xylene-based phthalic anhydride has strong cost support, potentially stabilizing its price. Naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride market prices are expected to trend slightly higher.

Overall, both key raw materials are expected to maintain high price levels, providing continued strong cost support for DBP. However, end-user resistance to high DBP prices remains significant, with slow growth in upstream inquiries and purchasing intent. Overall trading activity is moderate. Consequently, production factories face increased inventory and pressure due to poor sales. The domestic DBP market is subsequently forecast to experience volatile but slightly stronger performance.

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