I. Price Trend
According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda showed a continuous downward trend in January. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong was 738 yuan/ton, while by the end of the month, the price had dropped to 636 yuan/ton, representing a decrease of 13.82% and a year-on-year decline of 23.1%. On January 29, the Business Society Chlor-Alkali Index stood at 724 points, down 1 point from the previous day, a decrease of 65.98% from the cycle high of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and an increase of 1.69% from the cycle low of 712 points (January 5, 2016). (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis
According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda continued to decline throughout January. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 560-650 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda ranging from 680-790 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices were consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (on a 100% basis) around 2250-2350 yuan/ton.

During the month, alumina procurement prices continued to fall, with cumulative reductions of 25 yuan/ton in provincial alumina procurement prices, bringing them down to 590 yuan/ton. Caustic soda supply remained ample, with high operating rates, while downstream demand for caustic soda was moderate, leading to a decline in prices. By the end of the month, supply was sufficient, but downstream alumina producers showed limited enthusiasm in entering the market, resulting in a stalemate. Purchasing of caustic soda was primarily based on immediate needs. It is expected that the alumina sector will experience a weak and fluctuating trend in the near future.

Additionally, data shows that in 2025, China's cumulative caustic soda imports amounted to 8,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%. Among these, flake caustic soda imports totaled 8,500 tons, while liquid caustic soda imports were 400 tons. Meanwhile, China's cumulative caustic soda exports reached 4.1011 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. Of these, flake caustic soda exports totaled 671,500 tons, up 42.1% year-on-year, and liquid caustic soda exports amounted to 3.4296 million tons, an increase of 32.1% year-on-year.

Business Society analysts believe that the caustic soda market remained weak in January, with domestic downstream industries purchasing primarily based on demand. Although upstream producers have adjusted maintenance plans, the decline in production is limited. Considering the supply-demand dynamics, it is expected that caustic soda prices will remain weak in the near term, with specific trends depending on downstream market demand.