According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in January showed an initial rise followed by a decline, with an overall slight increase. The mainstream average price of medium-sulfur petroleum coke products from major domestic local refineries was 2,691.75 yuan/ton on January 30, compared to 2,598.25 yuan/ton on January 1, representing an overall increase of 3.6%.

Cost Side: In January, international crude oil prices fluctuated upward. The crude oil market was influenced by multiple favorable factors, including supply disruptions due to winter storms in the United States and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The core driver was the significant short-term supply disturbances, coupled with a rebound in geopolitical risk premiums, leading to a concentrated release of bullish sentiment and a sustained upward trend in crude oil prices. The crude oil market directly impacted the domestic refined oil market, driving up the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel.

Supply Side: The market for locally refined petroleum coke in January initially rose and then fell. In early January, downstream carbon and anode enterprises continued to provide support for petroleum coke, with active market trading, leading to a sustained increase in the price of locally refined petroleum coke. In mid-January, the market for locally refined petroleum coke declined, with moderate trading activity and slower shipments from refineries, prompting them to actively reduce prices for sales. In late January, shipments in the local refining market improved, with active market transactions, supporting price increases for coke from some refineries.

Demand Side: According to the market monitoring system analysis of Business Society, the domestic metal silicon market showed a slight increase in January, with the price at 9,650 yuan/ton on January 30, compared to 9,620 yuan/ton on January 1, representing an overall increase of 0.31%. Some large industrial silicon plants in certain regions still have plans for further production cuts and maintenance, leading to an overall reduction in market operations. The overall supply pressure in the metal silicon market is not significant, and factories have no clear plans for inventory reduction. The silicon industry continues to have demand for petroleum coke.

In January, the market for medium- and high-sulfur calcined coke showed a slight increase. Recently, trading in the medium- and high-sulfur calcined coke market has remained stable, with steady demand from downstream enterprises, and most companies have already sold new orders for the next month.

Aluminum prices remained strong in January. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 30, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24,666.67 yuan/ton, compared to 22,473.33 yuan/ton on January 1, representing an increase of 9.76%. Before the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises gradually began holidays, with the traditional off-season for consumption combined with high prices suppressing purchasing willingness. Social inventories of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate (as of January 28, domestic social inventories were approximately 796,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week, approaching 800,000 tons, higher than the same period last year). The discount of spot prices to futures contracts widened, highlighting the cautious sentiment among downstream buyers. Downstream aluminum carbon products primarily rely on rigid demand for petroleum coke.

Future Market Forecast: As the Spring Festival approaches, some refineries have plans to reduce inventories before the holiday. Coupled with generally cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream buyers, support for the petroleum coke market is limited, and market entry remains cautious. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will likely consolidate in the near term.