Around late August, the MMA market began to rebound, and prices continued to climb after the September market opened. As of the morning trading session on September 8, the reference price in the East China market was around 12,100 yuan/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 700 yuan/ton, or 6.14%, in this round. The main drivers behind the rally were supply-side and cost-side support. Near-term fundamentals now show that cost support persists while supply is trending upward, and the market tug-of-war has intensified once again.
1. MMA cumulative price gain reaches 6.14%
As shown in Figure 1, MMA market prices rose steadily from late August through last Friday, with supply and cost as the main supports for the upward movement. On the supply side, some units delayed their restarts, postponing the materialization of supply expectations, and the industry-wide operating rate needed time to ramp up gradually. In this context, successively rising costs lent further support to price increases. As a result, the center of gravity for MMA spot negotiations moved up step by step, and low-priced offers became scarce. As of the morning session on September 8, the reference price in the East China market stood at around 12,100 yuan/ton.
2. Supply-side delivery has fallen short of expectations; further replenishment expected by mid-September
According to Chempricehub's weekly data monitoring, as of September 3, MMA output and capacity utilization showed no marked change versus the previous cycle, and spot supply was not replenished to any significant degree. At present, the previously shut-down units have restarted as scheduled, and MMA output in the coming cycle is expected to increase markedly, lifting capacity utilization by 10 percentage points to 68%. Barring any unplanned unit changes, market supply is expected to be further replenished by mid-September, narrowing the spot supply gap.
3. High feedstock prices: cost support has run through the entire market trend
As shown in Figure 4, judging by the 2026 price trends of some upstream products, prices surged broadly from March to April and then retreated from May to early July. Price performance in mid-to-late July was stronger than in the May–early July period, which pushed MMA costs higher.
As of the morning session on September 8, 2026, gains varied among the different products: Jiangsu acetone rose 675 yuan/ton to 7,800 yuan/ton, up 9.47%; Shandong tert-butanol climbed 200 yuan/ton to 7,500 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; Taicang methanol advanced 375 yuan/ton to 3,475 yuan/ton, up 12.10%; Jiangsu sulfuric acid (98%) fell 100 yuan/ton, down 4.76%; and Shandong isobutene gained 600 yuan/ton to 11,450 yuan/ton, up 5.53%. Overall, the MMA cost level in the morning session of September 8 was higher than at the end of August.
4. Downstream rigid demand remains, but buying interest at high prices is weak
Recently, the MMA cost side has kept rising and prices have moved up accordingly, raising costs for downstream users. Following last week's price gains, downstream sectors have passed through costs at different paces, and cost transmission has lagged the upstream side. This week, downstream enthusiasm for high-priced purchases has weakened, and buying has largely been limited to rigid demand.
5. Summary
In summary, the recent MMA price rally was mainly driven by supply and cost. On the supply side, multiple units have restarted successively over the past week and this week; capacity utilization is set to rise by 10 percentage points to 68%, and contract as well as spot availability will be gradually replenished. On the demand side, downstream buyers restocked on a need basis during the rally and are now mainly executing contracts and digesting price gains; spot purchases have slowed, with buyers showing some resistance to high-priced offers. On the cost side, costs are likely to remain high in the short term, still providing relatively firm support to market prices. Therefore, cost-side support and supply-demand factors will coexist in the near term, and although geopolitical developments still inject uncertainty into costs, support remains fairly strong. If no unplanned unit upsets occur and cost fluctuations stay within a narrow range, it cannot be ruled out that, after a period of standoff and consolidation, the market will return to supply-demand-driven negotiations where slight softening may emerge at the margin. That said, the actual market direction will still hinge on trading pace and cost movements; should costs rise beyond expectations or supply-side surprises occur, the market may well deviate from the current outlook.
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