Lead-in: Since September, the caprolactam market has been boosted by continued surges in crude oil and pure benzene prices, supported by a tight supply pattern for caprolactam in previous periods. Caprolactam prices surged to 14,400 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since the beginning of 2026. However, downstream textile terminal demand failed to keep pace, with persistent losses in the polymerization and spinning sectors hindering the transmission of high raw material costs. Negative feedback across the industrial chain is gradually emerging. Additionally, this week saw upstream pure benzene prices turn downward and caprolactam supply recover, dampening market confidence. Consequently, the caprolactam market faces potential pressure for a pullback and adjustment in the near future.
Recently, the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets have experienced wide-range fluctuations. Sinopec’s posted price for pure benzene briefly rose to 9,900 yuan/ton, placing significant cost-side pressure on caprolactam production. Caprolactam producers intended to raise prices further this week, maintaining an upward trend in quotations. However, sentiment in the downstream PA6 chip market weakened, with polymerization enterprises resisting high raw material costs. Amidst the supply-demand tug-of-war in the caprolactam market, the spot price of pure benzene declined this week, exacerbating downstream caution. Resistance to high caprolactam prices intensified among buyers, increasing obstacles to transactions at elevated levels and narrowing the scope of price increases. The spot price of caprolactam in the East China market edged up slightly from the previous week to 14,400 yuan/ton (acceptance basis, delivered). According to weekly average price statistics for the East China caprolactam market in 2026, this week’s average price reached its highest point year-to-date.
On the upstream raw materials front, the international crude oil market initially surged significantly due to geopolitical events. This week, the NYMEX crude oil weekly average price stood at $102.44/barrel, while Brent crude averaged $106.5/barrel, both showing weekly gains exceeding 9%. Driven by crude oil trends, the weekly average spot price of pure benzene in East China reached 9,819 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 520 yuan/ton. Sinopec raised its posted price for pure benzene to 9,900 yuan/ton. However, as efforts by multiple parties eased tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes strengthening the US dollar, international oil prices turned downward, pulling pure benzene prices back. Currently, Sinopec has lowered its posted price for pure benzene by 300 yuan to 9,600 yuan/ton. With cost-side support loosening from highs, market confidence in caprolactam is being constrained.
Regarding caprolactam supply, recent normalizations in production following the restart of Luxi Chemical’s Phase III unit, Tianchen Yaolong’s return to normal operations, and slight load increases at Shenma’s units have led to a modest rise in capacity utilization and a gradual recovery in supply volumes. This week, the industry-wide capacity utilization rate for caprolactam was 69.22%, with weekly output reaching 120,100 tons, a slight week-on-week increase of 2,300 tons. Downstream demand remained largely stable, easing the previously tight supply pattern. Furthermore, increased external sales volumes by some producers have made the spot supply situation for caprolactam slightly looser.
Demand remains the primary constraint on the current market. Terminal textile orders are insufficient. This week, the operating load for downstream nylon filament was 67.5%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, while the domestic weaving industry operated at only 51.94%. Although prices for PA6 chips and nylon filaments adjusted upward alongside raw materials, profits for downstream polymerization and spinning enterprises were compressed, with no improvement in their loss-making status. Facing continuously rising raw material prices, most downstream buyers adopted a strategy of purchasing only immediate necessities, resisting high-cost inputs and showing low willingness to chase price rallies. Pressure from terminal demand is gradually transmitting upstream to the raw material sector, forming clear negative feedback. Moreover, with crude oil and pure benzene prices falling, downstream procurement rhythms have slowed further, intensifying wait-and-see sentiment.
In summary, amid the current high-level tug-of-war in the caprolactam market, two main factors exert bearish pressure. First, under expectations of geopolitical easing, international oil prices may continue to correct, and pure benzene prices are projected to fluctuate weakly, thereby loosening cost support for caprolactam. Second, the resumption of previously shut-down caprolactam units has increased market availability, shifting the spot supply landscape from tightness toward looseness. Combined with strong risk-aversion sentiment among downstream participants and a lack of confidence in concentrated restocking, these factors form a bearish constraint on the caprolactam market. Consequently, the market faces pressure for a pullback and adjustment in the coming period.
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