[Introduction] Recently, the domestic acrylic acid market has continued to weaken, entering a clear downward channel. Against the backdrop of weakened raw material cost support and prominent supply-demand imbalances, acrylic acid manufacturers and holders have successively offered concessions to stimulate sales, causing the market trading focus to continuously shift downward. Meanwhile, downstream industries remain highly cautious, with procurement mainly based on orders and replenishment on demand, resulting in overall light trading. Affected by this, the profit margins of the acrylic acid industry have narrowed significantly.

1. Market Review: Prices Continue to Fall, Market Confidence Lacking

Recently, the acrylic acid market price has entered a volatile downward channel. Taking the East China region as an example, the price range was 8,600–8,800 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from the previous cycle, a decline of 4.61%. Manufacturers and holders have notably loosened their quotations, showing a stronger willingness to concede on prices. Meanwhile, downstream users hold a strong bearish sentiment, mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with only limited replenishment for essential needs, leading to a sluggish overall market trading atmosphere. Overall, due to the lack of positive factors, prices remain under pressure in the short term.

2. Cost Side: High Propylene Prices Loosen, Support Weakens

Last week, the raw material propylene market showed a "strong first, weak later" trend, resulting in a weakened overall cost support for acrylic acid. At the beginning of the week and before the holiday period, propylene prices remained firm and rose due to downstream stocking demand and a tight supply-demand balance. During the holiday, logistics and transportation were restricted, and the circulation of external supply shrank, keeping the market in a tight supply pattern and maintaining high propylene prices. However, entering the latter part of the week, as high propylene prices continued to be passed downstream, the cost pressure on downstream industries intensified, significantly weakening their willingness to follow up on purchases, and market trading gradually cooled. By May 9, propylene prices experienced a broad decline. According to data from ChemPriceHub, the mainstream closing price of propylene in Shandong was 9,050–9,400 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 315 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the mainstream transaction price in East China fell to 9,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

3. Supply and Demand Structure: High Supply, Persistently Weak Demand

From the supply side, the average capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry last week remained at a relatively high level of 82.35%, essentially flat with the previous cycle. Plant operations showed "large stability with minor fluctuations," overall supply was ample, and holders quoted prices following market trends with an active mindset to sell. On the demand side, downstream performance remained persistently weak. The main downstream sectors of acrylic acid—such as acrylate and specialty ester manufacturers—mainly consumed existing contracts and internal inventories, with limited purchases for essential needs. Terminal inquiries were at a low level, with the mentality of "buying on rising prices, not on falling" dominating the market, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and light trading sentiment. Downstream users generally adopted a strategy of "purchasing based on orders and replenishing as needed," unwilling to build raw material inventories amidst the current downward channel. This "strong supply, weak demand" pattern made it difficult for holders to effectively stimulate demand even with active price cuts, forcing the negotiation focus to continuously shift downward.

4. Profit Margins Narrow Significantly, Industry Profit Pressure Intensifies

After the holiday, acrylic acid prices continued to fall, while raw material propylene remained at high levels, leading to a slight increase in costs and a gradual narrowing of acrylic acid profits. As of May 9, the theoretical cost of acrylic acid was approximately 7,745 yuan/ton, with profits narrowing to 955 yuan/ton, a significant decline from earlier periods. The reason is that the decline in acrylic acid prices outpaced the decline in raw material propylene prices, causing product prices to fall faster than costs, thereby continuously compressing profit margins. According to relevant statistics, the average profit of the domestic acrylic acid industry this week was 1,124.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 716.9 yuan/ton from the previous week's average, a drop of 38.94%, indicating a notable decline in industry profitability.

5. Market Outlook

The East China acrylic acid market is expected to continue its weak performance next week. Next week, international oil prices are likely to have room to fall, and there is an expectation of weakening propylene prices in the short term, reducing cost-side support. Acrylic acid manufacturers and holders will quote prices following market trends, but as prices continue to decline, downstream users are clearly cautious and adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with limited follow-up from terminal demand. The game between upstream and downstream persists. Overall, there is a high probability that the acrylic acid market will continue to decline next week.