Introduction: During this cycle (June 26 to July 2, 2026), the domestic acrylic acid market continued its deep downward trend, with industry profit margins sharply narrowing. The spot price of acrylic acid in East China ranged between 6,100 and 6,800 RMB/ton, down 907.5 RMB/ton from the previous cycle, a decline of 12.2%. As of July 2, the market price of acrylic acid in East China had fallen to around 6,200 RMB/ton. Meanwhile, upstream feedstock propylene rebounded against the trend due to unplanned shutdowns of several PDH units, with the mainstream transaction price in East China rising to 7,800 RMB/ton. Under the pattern of rising feedstock costs and falling product prices, the profits of the acrylic acid industry were severely compressed, with theoretical production profit dropping to -338 RMB/ton, pushing some enterprises into losses. This round of substantial price decline is the combined result of three factors: poor cost pass-through, release of supply pressure, and weak demand.
1. Acrylic Acid Prices Continued to Decline This Cycle, with Three Major Regional Markets Falling Simultaneously
During this cycle, the acrylic acid market in East China experienced a downward trend, with spot prices ranging from 6,100 to 6,800 RMB/ton, a decrease of 907.5 RMB/ton or 12.2% compared to the previous cycle. As of July 2, the price of acrylic acid in East China was 6,200 RMB/ton, down 12.20% ; in North China, the mainstream price was 6,350 RMB/ton, down 11.75% ; in South China, the mainstream price was 6,650 RMB/ton, down 9.36% . The three major regional markets fell simultaneously, with East China suffering the largest decline. Although feedstock propylene prices rose, they failed to provide effective support for acrylic acid prices.
2. Poor Cost Pass-Through, Acrylic Acid Margins Narrowed Significantly
The most prominent contradiction in this round of acrylic acid price declines lies in the severe squeezing of upstream and downstream profits. On the cost side, feedstock propylene showed an oscillating upward trend due to periodic supply disruptions. Multiple PDH units, including those of Jiangsu Ruihang, Jinneng Chemical, and Donghua Maoming, experienced unplanned shutdowns one after another, tightening spot supply. Downstream enterprises engaged in concentrated bargain hunting after prices fell to relatively low levels, and just-in-time buying boosted propylene prices to rebound from the bottom. As of July 2, the mainstream transaction price of propylene in Shandong was 7,725 RMB/ton, up 10.75% week-on-week; in East China, the mainstream transaction price was 7,800 RMB/ton, up 4.00% week-on-week.
However, the ability of acrylic acid to follow the price increase was limited. Based on the cost-profit calculation using East China propylene market prices, as of July 2, the theoretical cost of acrylic acid was 6,538 RMB/ton, while the market price of acrylic acid in East China was only 6,200 RMB/ton, resulting in a theoretical production profit of -338 RMB/ton. The average weekly profit of acrylic acid in this cycle was 185.3 RMB/ton, a decrease of 80.91% from the previous week. Profitability across all propylene downstream derivatives weakened, with acrylic acid suffering the most severe loss.
3. Supply Pressure Released, Capacity Utilization Rate Increased
On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry rose instead of falling during this cycle. Shanghai Huayi's acrylic acid unit increased its operating load, and although Qixiang Tengda's unit experienced a brief shutdown, the overall industry capacity utilization rate still rose to 67.31%, an increase of 4.48 percentage points week-on-week. The output of acrylic acid in this cycle reached 68,800 tons, up 4,600 tons from the previous cycle. As capacity utilization increased, acrylic acid factories and holders actively sold off inventory, leading to an increase in low-priced goods in the market, further intensifying the downward price pressure.
4. Demand Continues to Be Weak, End-User Offtake Limited
Currently, it is the traditional off-season for coatings. Downstream emulsion factories purchase as needed, primarily consuming long-term contract inventory, with weak intentions for concentrated replenishment. The main downstream consuming sectors of acrylic acid—such as architectural coatings, adhesives, and superabsorbent polymers—showed sluggish just-in-time purchasing, lacking concentrated inventory-building actions. Specialty esters and SAP companies mainly consumed contracts and inventories, showing weak demand for spot purchases. The recovery of the end-consumer market was slow, and downstream enterprises largely adopted a strategy of "purchasing as needed and maintaining low inventory," with few large-scale stockpiling activities.
5. Market Outlook
Looking ahead to next week, the acrylic acid market in East China is likely to be stable to weak. From the cost side, feedstock propylene prices are expected to be weaker, providing limited cost support to acrylic acid and insufficient to effectively underpin the market. On the supply side, there is still room for the industry capacity utilization rate to increase next week. The restart or ramp-up of some units will bring additional supply, and spot supply in the market is expected to become more ample. Acrylic acid factories and holders will offer flexibly and actively sell. Demand, however, is expected to remain cautious, with some participants seeking suitable prices for just-in-time needs. In the short term, the East China acrylic acid market is expected to operate under pressure, with the center of gravity potentially shifting slightly lower, maintaining an overall stable but weak pattern.
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