I. Market Overview
As of February 3, the benchmark price of propylene on Business Society was 6,391.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the beginning of the month (6,404.33 yuan/ton). Compared to previous highs, the price has stabilized. This indicates that after a rapid price surge in January (Shandong prices reached 6,405 yuan/ton on January 27), the market's upward momentum has weakened, with both buyers and sellers adopting a cautious stance and entering a wait-and-see phase.

II. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Analysis
The current "temporary stability" in the market is primarily the result of a balance between supply and demand factors.

1. Supply Side: Tight Balance Persists
   The core factor driving the earlier price increase was an unexpected tightening of supply, particularly as the operating rate of PDH (propane dehydrogenation) units once fell below 60%. Although the overall propylene capacity utilization rate currently stands at 70.93%, it remains relatively low, with manageable enterprise inventories and limited spot resources in the short term.
   Market focus is on the expectation of "potential restarts." Some analysts point out that if major PDH units in the north restart as planned, it could alleviate supply tightness, thereby putting pressure on market sentiment. This is one of the main sources of the current market's cautious outlook.

2. Demand Side: Seasonal Weakness
   As downstream factories gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday period, actual demand has slightly weakened. The performance of major downstream sectors varies. For example, PP powder prices remain high but stable, while epoxypropane and octanol prices have declined to varying degrees. Downstream sectors' willingness to chase higher propylene prices has slowed, making it difficult to support further significant price increases.

3. Cost Side: Deep Losses in PDH Profitability
   Currently, the PDH process route remains deeply unprofitable (East China: -304 yuan/ton, Shandong: -444 yuan/ton). From a cost perspective, this provides strong bottom support for propylene prices, limiting producers' willingness to further reduce prices.
   Previously optimistic macroeconomic sentiment and capital-driven momentum have subsided, with the market refocusing on fundamental supply and demand dynamics.

III. Short-Term Outlook
Overall, propylene prices are expected to remain in a high-range consolidation pattern in the short term. Prices face significant resistance above the 6,450 yuan/ton level, primarily due to seasonal weakening in downstream demand.
Potential delays in the restart of supply-side units and persistent cost losses will limit the downside for prices.
The key to post-holiday market trends will depend on the interplay between the actual restart progress of supply-side units and the post-holiday restocking demand from downstream enterprises.