Supply-side continues to ramp up, ethanol market expected to face downward pressure.

1. Ethanol supply continues to ramp up, with limited off-season demand growth

Market supply increased. In the current period, the supply of biologically fermented ethanol in the market rose slightly: Henan Huaxing resumed production, Houyuan resumed production, and Anhui Wansheng resumed production. Hongzhan's four plants are stable; Wanli is in normal production, COFCO Zhaodong's fuel ethanol production is stable, Zhongke Gelin is stable, and Shenglong is shut down. Jilin Fukang's unit is shut down, Jilin Xintianlong is in production, Dongfeng Hualiang's unit is shut down, and Yushu is shut down. Zhalantun's unit is shut down; SDIC Hailun and Jidong units are in production, and Tieling is resuming operations. In Henan Mengzhou, the Hanyong unit is normal, the Houyuan unit is in production, Huaxing is in production, and the Xinxiang unit is shut down. Sichuan Hongzhan's unit is shut down; at Anhui COFCO, the Bengbu plant is running on two production lines, while Suzhou is shut down, and Anhui Wanshen has resumed production. In Shandong, the Qufeng unit is in production, Jinyimeng is shut down, and Huating is shut down. Guangxi COFCO, Guangxi Xintiande, and Guangxi Jinyuan units are all in production. Coal-based ethanol supply rose slightly, with the Shandong plant operating. Shaanxi Yushen Energy Chemical's output is stable, the Xinghua plant is in production, and Yulin Kaiyue is operating steadily; the Anhui unit is producing stably; the Guangdong Daya Bay unit is in production; Henan Anyang is operating steadily and Henan Yongcheng is normal; the Jingmen Yuanhan unit is in production; the Hunan plant unit is in production; and the Xinjiang Tianye unit is in production.

Regional ethanol operating rate changes

During the week, the supply situation for some fermented ethanol units improved, with several plants resuming operations. The weekly capacity utilization rate stood at 48.36%, up 0.89 percentage points from the previous period.

2. Regional transactions fluctuate downward, and bearish market sentiment intensifies

Ethanol prices are expected to stabilize in the next period. Supply is expected to increase slightly next week as maintenance in major production regions comes to an end. While terminal demand has improved, traditional demand remains in the off-season, and the market continues to face oversupply.

Key market focus points for the next period:

1. Coal-based ethanol units are gradually resuming operations, and coal-based ethanol output is expected to rise in the later period.
2. Operating rates for fermentation corn-based ethanol are recovering as units in major production regions resume operations, with output rising in Northeast and Central China.
3. Some molasses-based ethanol units have restarted, keeping supply in the South China market stable.
4. Short-term cost support is weak, with corn and dried cassava prices fluctuating downward. Long-term cost support remains stable but has not provided upward price support.
5. On the demand side, chemical demand has improved somewhat, while traditional demand remains at low levels. The overall demand recovery across the ethanol industry chain is limited and has not met expectations for capacity recovery, leaving the market oversupplied.