Lead: Easing U.S.-Iran negotiations dragged international crude oil lower, marginally weakening cost support. Domestically, multiple ethylene units saw load reductions, slightly contracting pyrolysis C9 spot supply. Downstream products raised prices in tandem, providing rigid-demand underpinning, while profit trends diverged between the two major downstream sectors. Resin profit repair is expected ahead. Tightening spot supply combined with downstream rigid demand constitutes the core support. This week, pyrolysis C9 prices edged up, and the short-term market is expected to maintain a consolidating pattern.
Domestic spot market: National average price edged up, with notable regional divergence
2025-2026 Pyrolysis C9 Price Comparison (yuan/ton)
Data source: Chempricehub
Table 1 China Pyrolysis C9 Regional Price Comparison (unit: yuan/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrolysis C9 | Northeast | 4,200 | 4,050 | +150 | +3.70% | yuan/ton |
| North China | 4,600 | 4,550 | +50 | +1.10% | yuan/ton | |
| East China | 4,612 | 4,612 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | |
| Central China | 4,650 | 4,550 | +100 | +2.20% | yuan/ton | |
| South China | 4,611 | 4,372 | +239 | +5.47% | yuan/ton |
Data source: Chempricehub
The domestic national average price of pyrolysis C9 reached 4,642 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from 4,567 yuan/ton in the previous period, an increase of 1.64%. Mainstream quotations rose mainly in the 50–150 yuan/ton range, while independent refineries kept quotations largely steady, leading to notable regional price divergence. Market trading pace was steady; downstream players entered the market only for rigid-demand negotiations, with weak willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Market sentiment turned more cautious, spot circulation showed no significant volume expansion, and overall trading activity saw limited fluctuation.
Core drivers: Long-short factors at play, with supply tightening and downstream rigid demand forming core support
Table 2 China Pyrolysis C9 Industry Chain Price Comparison (unit: yuan/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Previous Period | Current Period | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrolysis C9 | Nationwide | 4,567 | 4,642 | +75 | +1.64% | yuan/ton |
| Industrial aromatic solvent | Nationwide | 5,953 | 6,030 | +77 | +1.29% | yuan/ton |
| C9 petroleum resin | Nationwide | 6,062 | 6,142 | +80 | +1.32% | yuan/ton |
Data source: Chempricehub
Cost side: With U.S.-Iran negotiations progressing and some sanctions lifted, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz eased, cooling market concerns over crude supply. Brent crude averaged $84.35/barrel this week, plunging 8.44% week-on-week, significantly weakening cost support for pyrolysis C9. Only residual cost support from earlier high oil prices held the market floor, and feedstock did not fall in tandem. Crude oil currently has only two short-term positives—the incomplete recovery of Middle East shipping and modest summer fuel demand—while U.S.-Iran talks and Middle East output increases dominate as bearish factors. Cost support for feedstock prices has visibly weakened.
Supply side: No new domestic unit maintenance was added, while units such as Guangxi Petrochemical reduced operating loads. Pyrolysis C9 output stood at 60,700 tons this period, down 400 tons from the prior period; capacity utilization was 76.43%, down 0.43 percentage points. The slight supply tightening became the core bullish factor for price increases. The industry has a total of 481,000 tons of pyrolysis units in prolonged shutdown. Most downstream resin enterprises are under maintenance, with only Liaoning Yufu planning to restart on August 12. Next week, unit loads are expected to recover, with output estimated at 61,000 tons; supply growth will cap feedstock price gains.
Demand side: Operating rates of the two major downstream sectors stayed flat, with C9 petroleum resin and aromatic solvent capacity utilization holding at 45.21% and 54.45%, respectively. Rigid demand continued to underpin prices, but downstream players resisted high prices and remained cautious in stockpiling. Industry chain profits diverged: aromatic solvent gross profit was 165 yuan/ton, down 9.34% week-on-week, with further declines expected next week; C9 resin gross profit was 134 yuan/ton, down 15.19% week-on-week, but with Liaoning Yufu's unit restart, profit is expected to recover to approximately 145 yuan/ton next week. End-users purchased only on an as-needed basis without concentrated stockpiling; however, downstream finished products rising in tandem continues to shore up the pyrolysis C9 spot floor.
Industry chain transmission: Crude oil costs weakening top-down, while downstream product price increases support feedstock in reverse
International crude fell sharply this week, transmitting cost pressure from top to bottom and continuously eroding cost support for pyrolysis C9. However, downstream industrial aromatic solvent and C9 petroleum resin prices both rose slightly, with finished product price increases providing reverse support to feedstock quotations, forming a "weak cost, strong demand" game-playing pattern.
Industrial aromatic solvent price increases were smaller than those of pyrolysis C9, compressing short-term processing margins. Although C9 petroleum resin profits declined this period, the anticipated unit restart has driven expectations of profit recovery ahead, and holders maintain a relatively firm price-supporting stance. Overall, downstream rigid demand offset the bearish impact of falling crude oil, preventing any significant market decline; only the extent of gains was limited, and supply-demand negotiations in the market continued.
Summary and outlook
In summary, the core drivers behind this week's slight pyrolysis C9 price uptick were the spot supply tightening from ethylene unit load reductions and the rigid-demand support from synchronized price hikes in the two major downstream finished products. Three bearish factors—the sharp crude oil decline triggered by eased U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, cautious downstream purchasing, and next week's supply increase—formed downward pressure. After long-short offsetting, the market rose modestly with generally subdued trading.
Looking to next week, multiple long and short factors will interweave, with mainstream pyrolysis C9 prices expected to maintain a consolidating pattern, with transaction references at 4,550–4,750 yuan/ton.
Key points to monitor ahead: Progress of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude price fluctuations, the actual implementation of Liaoning Yufu's resin unit restart, downstream terminal restocking pace, and refinery sales/settlement conditions across regions.
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