According to the commodity market analysis system data from Business Society, from February 2 to February 9, 2026, the domestic toluene market experienced a slight decline, with prices dropping from 5,560 RMB/ton to 5,410 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.7%. During this period, the market retreated from high levels and underwent consolidation. Weakening cost-side support, regional supply-side loosening, the conclusion of pre-holiday downstream stockpiling, and cooling speculative buying sentiment collectively drove prices lower. Pressure to maintain stability at high levels increased, and the overall market trend was weak within a range.

Cost Side:
Data from Business Society's commodity market analysis system shows that international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined during this period. Geopolitical premiums gradually dissipated, market expectations for demand turned cautious, and the impact of certain macroeconomic data contributed to a slight downward shift in oil prices, leading to a phased weakening of cost support for the toluene market. Domestic crude oil futures followed the fluctuations in the international market, with previous high-level support fading and market sentiment turning cautious. Naphtha prices also trended weaker. The overall upward momentum in the cost side of the aromatics industry chain was insufficient, leaving the toluene market lacking sustained upward drive from costs. Coupled with heightened market expectations for future oil price volatility, speculative buying sentiment in the toluene market was significantly suppressed, creating room for price corrections. As of February 6, the settlement price for the March WTI crude oil futures contract was $63.55 per barrel, while the settlement price for the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.05 per barrel. (Business Society Brent-WTI crude oil price comparison chart.)

Supply Side:
During this period, domestic toluene supply was generally tight, with significant regional variations due to differences in plant operations and arrival volumes, which became the core driver supporting price increases.

• Shandong Region: Supply remained in a tight balance, exhibiting the strongest price support. Delays in the restart of Xinyue Chemical's plant, maintenance shutdowns at Youtai Technology, Huaxing Petrochemical's toluene primarily for internal use, and reduced regional circulation from Yulong Petrochemical led to a continuous contraction in supply. Refinery auction premiums became normalized, with active price hikes pushing quotations above the 5,000 RMB/ton threshold, resulting in active trading.
• Jiangsu Region: A decline in vessel arrivals at storage terminals led to tight spot supply. Combined with the positive impact of rising crude oil and aromatics product prices, holders actively supported prices. Frequent paper trading and the opening of export arbitrage windows further reinforced a reluctance to sell, causing prices to follow the upward trend in Shandong.
• Guangdong Region: The market showed a "tight first, then loose" pattern. Earlier delays in vessel arrivals promoted destocking and price increases, while subsequent vessel arrivals later in the period put downward pressure on prices.

Additionally, domestic major refineries maintained stable operations but with a higher proportion of internal consumption. Sinopec's toluene plants operated normally with stable production, with most products used internally, maintaining balanced production and sales.

As of February 9, quoted prices were: East China Company 5,500 RMB/ton, North China Company 5,400 RMB/ton, South China Company 5,500 RMB/ton, Central China Company 5,350 RMB/ton.