This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the downward trend from last week, with overall market performance remaining sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, during the week of January 26–30, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province fell by 1.32%, with the decline narrowing slightly. The main reasons are the ample supply of ammonia, the increasing holiday atmosphere, and the gradual shutdown or reduced operations of downstream industries, leading to weakened demand. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province ranges from 2,150 to 2,350 yuan per ton.

From the supply perspective, this week's supply remained stable or even increased compared to last week. In the main production areas in northern China, output remained stable, with steady liquid ammonia supply in Shandong and Hebei. In regions such as Anhui and Jiangsu, some production facilities resumed operations, leading to an increase in ammonia supply. Although environmental restrictions affected production in Shaanxi, the ample supply in surrounding areas caused prices in northwestern and Inner Mongolia regions to continue declining. According to Business Society's monitoring, major manufacturers in Shandong Province adjusted prices during the week, with adjustments generally within a range of 50 yuan. The market exhibited oversupply, and with expectations of further production resumptions, supply may continue to increase in the future.

From the demand perspective, downstream demand remained moderate. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants remained low, and some phosphate fertilizer enterprises in downstream regions were affected by environmental restrictions, leading to a continued decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Urea prices rose this week, mainly due to short-term purchasing activities ahead of the Spring Festival. However, sustainability may be challenging in the future. According to the commodity analysis system, urea prices increased by 1.15% for the week. Additionally, domestic industrial demand remained weak, while agricultural demand was mainly based on necessity, with sporadic replenishment orders. Overall, demand improvement was limited, and market sentiment remained cautious.

Market Outlook: Business Society analysts predict that supply-demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market will persist next week, mainly due to expectations of production resumptions, which pose supply risks. However, agricultural demand may have room for improvement, and the operating rates of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate show signs of recovery. The interplay between supply and demand is expected to intensify, and the ammonia market is likely to remain range-bound with fluctuations.