I. Key Points
September 18: International crude oil prices fell as expectations for the repair of Saudi Arabian pipelines improved, coinciding with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. The NYMEX WTI October contract dropped by USD 1.61/bbl to USD 100.30 (WoW -1.58%); the ICE Brent November contract fell by USD 0.95/bbl to USD 103.87 (WoW -0.91%). China's INE crude oil futures contract SC2611 declined by CNY 50.6 to CNY 754.4/bbl, and fell a further CNY 19.6 to CNY 734.8/bbl during the night session.
September 18: Trading activity in the Asian styrene FOB market remained limited. RMB-denominated far-month prices showed little movement, and the daily USD market closed stable. FOB Korea settled at USD 1,340–1,350/ton (average price unchanged); CFR China settled at USD 1,300–1,310/ton (average price unchanged).
September 20: Compared to the previous trading day, theoretical production-sales margins for integrated units increased by CNY 30 to CNY 1,558/ton, while losses for non-integrated units widened by CNY 80 to CNY -871/ton.
Core Logic: Recent market movements have been significantly influenced by weakening crude oil prices, compounded by insufficient downstream demand support due to negative feedback loops.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 18 | Sep 20 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent | 103.87 | 103.87 | 0 |
| Ethylene | CFR NE Asia | 1,180 | 1,180 | 0 |
| Benzene | East China Market | 9,420 | 9,560 | +140 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 10,095 | 10,125 | +30 |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units: Brent crude in USD/bbl; CFR NE Asia ethylene in USD/ton; Benzene and Styrene in CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for benzene and styrene represent the closing average of mainstream markets. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices listed above are spot, tax-inclusive rates. | ||||
| 4. "Change" refers to the week-on-week percentage change rate. |
III. Market Outlook
Styrene: The recent market has been heavily impacted by declining crude oil prices, along with weak price support from downstream sectors due to negative feedback. Port inventories are expected to rise. Planned maintenance at the Lianyungang unit suggests a potential reduction in industry supply. However, downstream cutbacks driven by negative feedback are increasing, leading to a trend of simultaneous contraction in both supply and demand. In the short term, the styrene market is likely to trade sideways with a bearish bias.
IV. Data Table
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory | 3.73 | 3.43 | -8.04% | ↘ |
| South China Port Inventory | 1.55 | 2.87 | +85.16% | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 64.55% | 66.26% | +1.71% | ↗ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 13.53 | 12.98 | -4.09% | ↘ |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. All data in the table represents weekly styrene statistics. ↘ indicates downward trend; ↗ indicates upward trend. | ||||
| 2. Styrene inventory data for Jiangsu ports is released before 15:00 on Monday of the reporting week. | ||||
| 3. Styrene inventory data for East China ports is released before 17:00 on Monday of the reporting week. | ||||
| 4. Styrene operating rate data is released before 18:00 on Thursday of the reporting week. | ||||
| 5. Styrene sample enterprise inventory data is released before 17:00 on Thursday of the reporting week. |
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