Sep 10: There are still no signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict. The Houthis continue to pressure Saudi Arabia, supply risks are increasing rather than easing, and international oil prices continue to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures October contract stood at 102.48, up 6.43 USD/bbl, or +6.69% day-on-day; the ICE Brent crude oil futures November contract stood at 107.63, up 6.42 USD/bbl, or +6.34% day-on-day. China INE crude oil futures 2610 contract rose 45.9 to 768.4 yuan/bbl; in night trading, it rose 47.6 to 816 yuan/bbl.
On Sep 10, trading in the Asian styrene US dollar market was wait-and-see. Driven by an evident rise in RMB prices, the Asian market closed higher during the day. FOB Korea closed at 1,408-1,418, with an average price up 48; CFR China closed at 1,368-1,378, with an average price up 48; unit: USD/mt.
On Sep 10, theoretically compared with the previous trading day: the theoretical production and sales profit of integrated plant enterprises increased by 46 to 1,855 yuan/mt; the theoretical production and sales loss of non-integrated plant enterprises increased by 99 yuan/mt to -515 yuan/mt.
Core logic: Recently, the market has been strongly guided by firmer crude oil and low inventories, while the impact of downstream production cuts is relatively weak.
| Product | Region | Sep 9 | Sep 10 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil | Brent | 101.21 | 107.63 | +6.42 |
| Ethylene | CFR Northeast Asia | 1150 | 1150 | 0 |
| Benzene | East China market | 9440 | 9880 | +440 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu market | 10225 | 10675 | +450 |
| Remarks: | ||||
| 1. Brent crude oil: USD/bbl; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene: USD/mt; benzene and styrene: yuan/mt. | ||||
| 2. For benzene and styrene, the closing average prices in mainstream markets are selected. | ||||
| 3. The RMB prices in the table above are cash payment tax-inclusive prices. | ||||
| 4. The rise/fall rate is the day-on-day change rate. |
Styrene: Recently, the market has been strongly guided by firmer crude oil and low inventories, while the impact of downstream production cuts is relatively weak. There are still no signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict; the Houthis continue to pressure Saudi Arabia, supply risks are increasing rather than easing, and international oil prices continue to rise. With Lihuayi restarting ahead of schedule, Anqing Petrochemical undergoing maintenance, and the Lianyungang unit scheduled for maintenance, the marginal recovery in industry supply may fall short of expectations. Downstream negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, but before absolute inventories effectively accumulate, the tight spot supply pattern is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed. In the short term, the styrene market may trade firm in a range; if near-month supply recovery falls short of expectations, the monthly spread may widen again.
| Data type | Previous period | Current period | Change rate | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu port inventory | 3.98 | 3.73 | -6.28% | ↘ |
| South China port inventory | 1.6 | 1.55 | -3.13% | ↘ |
| Operating rate | 63.27% | 64.55% | +1.28 | ↗ |
| Sample enterprise inventory | 14.43 | 13.53 | -6.19% | ↘ |
| Remarks: | ||||
| 1. The data in the table are all weekly styrene data; ↘ ↗ | ||||
| 2. Styrene Jiangsu port inventory is released before 15:00 on Monday of the current week; | ||||
| 3. Styrene East China port inventory is released before 17:00 on Monday of the current week; | ||||
| 4. Styrene operating rate is released before 18:00 on Thursday of the current week; | ||||
| 5. Styrene sample enterprise inventory is released before 17:00 on Thursday of the current week. |
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