Lead: After a rational price correction driven by downstream resistance, the aniline market has started to recover. Following the decline, some production units went into scheduled or unscheduled maintenance; combined with traders entering the market to secure orders, supply-demand dynamics shifted toward tightening, and market negotiations warmed.
Weak feedstock prices drag costs lower
In East China, pure benzene supply remained low due to continued refinery maintenance at domestic plants, and port inventories continued to decline. However, prices lacked upward momentum due to weakness in upstream crude oil costs, with an overall bearish trend. After the sharp drop in pure benzene prices, short-position holders did not exit the market, dampening end-user purchasing enthusiasm amid notable wait-and-see sentiment. Downstream sectors such as styrene and phenol saw low operating rates, demand remained persistently weak, and spot transactions were thin. Port inventories decreased slightly, providing limited price support but failing to reverse the weak pattern. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance has not eased in the near term, downstream lacks strong restocking intent, and there is insufficient room for a significant rebound, with the market expected to remain under pressure with range-bound fluctuations.
Currently, aniline downstream and end-users remain resistant to the still-high profitability in aniline, and the market underwent a rational price correction at the beginning of the week. After the price drop, Dongying Huatai’s planned maintenance took effect, and Shandong Jinling’s 100,000-ton unit temporarily went offline, providing some support to spot supply-demand dynamics. Additionally, some traders entered the market to sign orders, pushing domestic spot supply-demand toward tighter conditions and boosting market negotiations. Although pure benzene continued to decline, spot price guidance is now more reflective of supply-demand fundamentals, allowing the aniline market to maintain firm pricing.
Limited supply-side changes; industry sentiment remains cautious
After consecutive price declines in aniline, export negotiations improved notably, and some firm export orders were concluded, further reducing inventories at some producers. Coupled with unscheduled maintenance at some supply-side units, spot market supply-demand conditions remained favorable, giving strong support to aniline prices after the drop.
Demand improves; aniline finds solid bottom support
From the supply side, the return of units at Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinling is expected to increase spot supply. In terms of the industry, scheduled maintenance at Fujian Wanhua has significantly reduced industry output. On the demand side, aniline prices are at a year-low, prompting some firm export orders to enter the market actively, which has recently shifted the supply-demand balance from equilibrium to tightening. Near-term demand is expected to remain strong, and aniline producers face little sales pressure. On the cost side, the pure benzene market continues to weaken, with cost support collapsing.
In summary, the domestic aniline market is expected to hold prices steady in the coming week, with prices likely to operate around 9,200 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to export negotiations and domestic downstream operating rates.
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