Soda ash bottom persists, limited downside price potential.

Recently, the soda ash market has been exhibiting a weak and volatile trend, with most companies maintaining firm prices while a few have experienced slight declines. Price adjustments have narrowed, and downstream demand remains tepid, though low-priced restocking has increased. Looking at plant maintenance, there will be more shutdowns around mid-July, which is expected to reduce supply temporarily, but production will resume afterward, keeping overall supply relatively high. The market lacks clear drivers, and prices continue to hover near the bottom. Given the current industry losses and increasing pressure on companies, the downside potential for spot prices is expected to be limited.

Recent focus points in the soda ash market:

1. Soda ash sales performance and pending orders.
2. The impact of high ocean freight rates on soda ash imports and exports.
3. Downstream inventory levels and plant operating conditions.
4. Soda ash plant maintenance schedules and production cuts.
5. Soda ash enterprise inventories and price adjustments.
6. Futures price fluctuations and macroeconomic drivers.

Currently, some plants that were previously under maintenance have resumed operations, increasing supply. Individual plants are undergoing maintenance or reducing output, which has a localized effect on production. Around mid-July, more soda ash plants are scheduled for maintenance, which is expected to lower production. However, overall supply will gradually increase afterward, remaining relatively ample. At present, daily soda ash output exceeds 110,000 tons.

1. Plant fluctuations and narrow adjustments in operating rates