Sentiment First Strengthens Then Weakens; Market Fluctuates Within a Range (Sep 4–10, 2026)

1. Market Focus This Week

① Domestic sulfur production in the week of September 4–10, 2026 was about 206,600 mt, up 2.86% week on week.

② Domestic sulfur consumption in the week of September 4–10, 2026 was about 285,100 mt, up 1.68% week on week.

③ National port inventory was 966,200 mt, up 1.10% from last Thursday.

④ The MAP industry capacity utilization rate this week was 47.91%, down 3.35 percentage points from last Thursday. The DAP industry capacity utilization rate this week was 43.95%, up 0.17 percentage points from last Thursday.

2. This Week's Market Analysis

This week, the domestic sulfur market fluctuated overall. As of now, the mainstream granular price at Zhenjiang Port is RMB 7,700/mt, unchanged from last Thursday. On the external market, following Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait successively announced their September contract prices. The UAE set its price at FOB USD 960/mt, down USD 40/mt month on month, while Kuwait chose to keep its price stable at FOB USD 865/mt. The overall stable-to-soft trend in Middle Eastern official prices also indicates that the previous high prices in the USD-denominated market had hindered the liquidity of its resources. Soon afterward, rumors emerged from Indonesia of deals concluded at around CFR USD 950/mt, which significantly affected sentiment in the domestic spot market.

Domestically, at the beginning of the period, buyers continued to inquire and bid in the spot market, while sellers mostly held firm and stayed on the sidelines. With cargoes difficult to find, market prices moved further upward. However, as long-term contract suppliers completed their phased restocking, inquiry and bidding activity in the market quietened again. Holders of cargoes who intended to sell had to make adjustments, and the market immediately turned downward. Subsequently, rumors of low-priced buying in Indonesia emerged again and gradually spread, intensifying participants' wait-and-see sentiment. Sellers had no choice but to continue adjusting, and the decline in sulfur prices therefore widened.

Table 1 Domestic Sulfur Port Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/mt)

2. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

① Puguang Wanzhou prices are temporarily not quoted externally.

② As of September 10, port inventory in the Yangtze River region stood at 316,200 mt, up 2.26% from last week.

3. Next Week's Market Price Forecast

Given the current news of low-priced deals in the USD-denominated market and expectations of sluggish domestic trading, market participants are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach and follow the market. Against this backdrop, inquiry and bidding sentiment will naturally remain weak, and the pressure on market sentiment is unlikely to ease. If cargo holders want to sell smoothly going forward, they will inevitably have to make adjustments. Therefore, the sulfur market is expected to continue trending downward in the coming week.