I. Review of Epichlorohydrin Market in 2025:
The epichlorohydrin market in 2025 exhibited a fluctuating upward trend overall. In the first half of the year, the market rose driven by cost and demand factors. In the second half, the concentrated release of new production capacities and the restart of idled plants shifted the market from tight supply to oversupply, leading to a rapid decline in prices. According to data monitored by 100ppi.com, the price of epichlorohydrin started at 9,050 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and ended at 11,600 RMB/ton by year-end, representing an annual increase of 28.18%. The price chart shows that the annual peak occurred in mid-September, with an average market price of 13,000 RMB/ton, while the annual low occurred in late March, with an average market price of 8,850 RMB/ton. The maximum annual price fluctuation was 46.89%.

From the raw material perspective:
Glycerin: In 2025, glycerin prices remained high, exerting cost pressure.
Throughout 2025, glycerin prices experienced significant fluctuations in four distinct phases. Industrial-grade refined glycerin prices in East China started at 6,250 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and surged to an annual high of 9,600 RMB/ton in September, driven by Indonesia's imposition of export tariffs on crude glycerin. This provided strong support for epichlorohydrin prices, contributing to their rise. By year-end, glycerin prices fluctuated and retreated to around 8,525 RMB/ton, weakening their support for epichlorohydrin.

Propylene: In 2025, China's propylene market experienced a fluctuating decline.
Under the dual pressures of continued capacity expansion and sluggish demand growth, the price center of propylene shifted significantly downward in 2025. According to the commodity market analysis system of 100ppi.com, taking the Shandong market as an example by year-end, mainstream transaction prices fell to around 6,000 RMB/ton, a notable decline from the high levels at the beginning of the year. It is expected that propylene prices will maintain a "weak and fluctuating" pattern in 2026. Specific trends will require close attention to market dynamics and policy support.

II. Supply-Side Forecast for Epichlorohydrin in 2026:
In 2025, epichlorohydrin production capacity grew rapidly, with total capacity reaching approximately 2.385 million tons and production volume around 1.37 million tons. Four new plants were added during the year, contributing a combined additional capacity of approximately 295,000 tons/year, significantly boosting total capacity. Among the new capacities, green and environmentally friendly processes such as the glycerin method became the primary direction. For example, Nanshan Aluminum's planned investment project in Indonesia and the newly approved project by Coking Coal Group both adopted the glycerin method process.

As shown in the chart, epichlorohydrin production capacity maintained a growth trend in 2023, 2024, and 2025. In 2024, new capacity additions were around 140,000 tons, while in 2025, they were approximately 170,000 tons. Production volume in 2025 also saw a slight increase compared to 2024. It is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show incremental growth in 2026.

III. Demand-Side Forecast for Epichlorohydrin in 2026:
In 2025, the overall demand for epoxy resin, the largest downstream application of epichlorohydrin, remained weak. The subdued performance of epoxy resin's end-use applications (such as construction, coatings, and automotive) led downstream users to maintain rigid procurement of epichlorohydrin, often adopting a cautious "buy on rising prices, not on falling prices" mentality. In the second half of the year, with the release of new production capacities, market supply and demand shifted toward a looser balance, putting pressure on prices and profit margins. By year-end, during the traditional off-season, demand-side support for prices became even weaker. Overall, although demand increased in 2025, the growth rate was far outpaced by capacity expansion, resulting in persistent oversupply pressure in the market. It is expected that this supply-driven loose market structure will continue into 2026. Further attention should be paid to the impact of epoxy resin industry operating rates on the epichlorohydrin market.

In terms of imports and exports, according to customs data, China's total epichlorohydrin imports in 2025 were 621.1 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. Total exports amounted to 71,100 tons, a year-on-year decline of 15.6%. The export data indicates weakening international demand, reducing the role of exports in absorbing domestic excess capacity. The main pressure came from the gradual commissioning of new overseas plants (such as Arkema in Thailand), which enhanced regional self-sufficiency and reduced reliance on Chinese supplies. In summary, it is expected that China's epichlorohydrin exports in 2026 may either decline or remain flat.

IV. Market Outlook for Epichlorohydrin in 2026:
In summary, the epichlorohydrin market in 2026 is expected to experience wide fluctuations, making a unilateral upward trend unlikely. Changes in costs, plant operating rates, and downstream inventory stocking patterns will be key variables influencing short-term fluctuations. In the long term, the market structure will continue to be constrained by the structural contradiction of overcapacity and slowing demand growth.