According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, this week saw a decline in upstream cotton prices, improved shipments from spinning enterprises, and relatively stable cotton yarn prices. As of January 16, the spot price of 21S pure cotton ring-spun yarn in Shandong, China, was around 22,250 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. The spot price of 32S pure cotton ring-spun yarn was around 23,600 yuan per ton, also unchanged from last week.

Market Analysis: This week, the actual transaction prices of pure cotton yarn decreased slightly by 100–200 yuan per ton. High-count yarn shipments remained tight, with some spinning enterprises having orders scheduled until February, while low-count yarn shipments were sluggish. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has increased slightly, leading to a noticeable decline in yarn inventory. However, follow-up orders have been insufficient, and most spinning enterprises have orders that can be processed until before the Spring Festival. Spinning enterprises in inland regions reported earlier holiday arrangements compared to the same period last year. Recently, Vietnamese yarn quotations have continued to rise, with shipping schedules for some mainstream varieties already booked until April. Driven by cost increases and supported by domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices, spot quotations for imported cotton yarn at ports have generally followed the upward trend. However, the current market momentum is primarily driven by cost transmission and rigid stocking, with sustainability remaining uncertain.

Operating Conditions: This week, some enterprises in inland regions faced limited orders and slightly reduced production to alleviate inventory pressure. Operating rates in inland regions were around 50–60%, while rates in Xinjiang remained stable, maintaining over 90%. As of January 15, the operating load of spinning enterprises in major regions was 64.6%, down 0.15% from the previous week.

Inventory Situation: This week, yarn transactions increased, mainly due to pre-holiday stocking by downstream sectors, leading to a significant decline in inventory. Finished yarn inventory in Xinjiang was approximately 34–38 days, while inventory for inland enterprises was around 20–23 days. As of January 15, yarn inventory in spinning enterprises in major regions was 31.2 days, a weekly decrease of 4.29%.

Cost Aspects: This week, Zhengzhou cotton futures experienced a high-level correction, while spot basis differentials remained firm, with supply and demand expectations still in contention. The USDA’s downward revision of production expectations provided support to the market bottom. In the spot market, new cotton processing is nearing completion, with ample spot supply. Downstream sectors have increased replenishment due to pre-holiday rigid demand, and inquiries have risen significantly. It is expected that the cotton market will adjust within a range in the near term.

Demand Aspects: Recently, orders in the grey fabric printing and dyeing market have been generally moderate. While raw material prices have risen, grey fabric prices have remained relatively stable, with inventory levels relatively high. Orders are mainly small or repeat orders, with some previous products receiving repeat orders. Shipments of coarse and thick grey fabrics, as well as home textile down-proof fabrics, have been slightly faster, with efforts to meet pre-holiday delivery deadlines. According to statistics, as of January 15, the average operating rate of domestic cotton textile weaving was 38.77%, down 0.79% month-on-month.

Future Outlook: Currently, spinning enterprises have decent orders, with strong demand for medium- and high-count yarns. Supported by high raw cotton prices and a significant decline in inventory, cotton yarn prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.