Lead: As of the end of April, short-term data for the refrigerant market shows marginal weakening: household air conditioner production plans for May are 20.28 million units, a decrease of 1.04 million units (-4.88%) compared to April; new orders for R32 slightly declined to 3,198 tons (MoM -5.84%), and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.95% for two consecutive weeks without improvement, reflecting that terminal restocking demand has been partially absorbed at this stage.

1. Market Review (April 27–April 30)

Price trends for different product grades are diverging. R22 faces bidirectional pressure from reduced second-generation quota allocations and international geopolitical factors, with high raw material costs and shrinking demand putting strain on both volume and price; price hike offers and high-level transactions are met with caution. The logic of R32's peak-season price increase has been partially realized, but the weakening of air conditioner production plans is dragging short-term upward momentum. R125's first-quarter price increase was already substantial, leading to relatively high valuations; it is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation or see a mild correction in the short term. R134a has the strongest fundamental demand, but recent new orders have also come under some pressure; further observation of demand sustainability is needed.

The core contradiction in the fluorine refrigerant market has shifted from "quota tightness" to a "dual-layer game between quota tightness and demand fading after being front-loaded." After the Labor Day holiday, under the drive of fundamental demand, mainstream product prices are expected to remain resilient in the short term, but the pace of increases will slow, and product divergence will further intensify. R22, R32, and R134a may still see phased small increases, while R125 and its blended products face pressure for high-level consolidation, delaying value realization.

Table 1: Price List of Domestic Fluorine Refrigerants and Related Products

| Product | 2026/4/23 | 2026/4/30 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key Models | | | | | |
| R22 | 20,500 | 22,000 | 1,500 | 7.32% | CNY/ton |
| R32 | 63,286 | 63,500 | 214 | 0.34% | CNY/ton |
| R125 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| R134a | 61,000 | 61,500 | 500 | 0.82% | CNY/ton |
| Key Contracts | | | | | |
| R32 | 62,200 | 62,200 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| Key Related Products | | | | | |
| Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid | 13,500 | 13,500 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| Dichloromethane | 2,198 | 2,021 | -176 | -8.03% | CNY/ton |
| Trichloromethane | 2,800 | 2,800 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| Trichloroethylene | 5,900 | 5,900 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| Tetrachloroethylene | 3,886 | 3,257 | -629 | -16.18% | CNY/ton |

In the week before the holiday, among core product prices, as of April 28, quotations from major Zhejiang manufacturers for R32, R125, and R134a were 65,500 CNY/ton, 60,000 CNY/ton, and 62,000 CNY/ton (same price for domestic and export), while the mainstream transaction center in the East China market was referenced at 63,500 CNY/ton, 55,000 CNY/ton, and 61,500 CNY/ton. Despite maintaining high prices, the decline in operating rates and output indicates the industry is continuing its strategy of proactively controlling production to support prices; the pull of peak-season restocking on capacity utilization has reached a bottleneck. Average prices of tetrachloroethylene and dichloromethane fell MoM, down 16.18% and 8.03%, respectively. Average prices of trichloroethylene and trichloromethane were stable MoM. The broad rise in raw materials offset some profit margins from the increase in fluorine refrigerant prices. Profit margins for R32 and R134a fell slightly MoM, while R22 saw the largest profit decline, corroborating weak demand for R22 as shown by output and operating rate data.

2. Data Analysis

Currently, R32 prices are at a relatively high level. Production plans for May have weakened phase-by-phase, but rising temperatures still support fundamental demand. R32 ex-factory offers are expected to strengthen the implementation of volume control and price support, with the market firm price center consolidating. The average monthly price of dichloromethane rose 6.63% MoM, while the average theoretical profit for R32 declined MoM, with the average profit margin falling 1.18% MoM.

Table 2: Data Table for Domestic Fluorine Refrigerant R32 and Related Products

| Product Name | | 2026/4/23 | 2026/4/30 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R32 | Production Margin | 47,530 | 48,061 | 532 | 1.12% | CNY/ton |
| | Capacity Utilization | 65.95% | 65.95% | 0 | 0.00% | % |
| | Orders | 3,042.00 | 3,198.00 | 156 | 5.13% | KG |
| Product Name | Key Downstream | | | | | |
| Household Air Conditioner | Production Plan | 21.32 million | 20.28 million | -1.04 million | -4.88% | Units |

Note: Household air conditioner production plan compares the April order volume (on 2026/4/23) with the May order volume (on 2026/4/30); R32 orders follow the monthly orders of household air conditioners to estimate April and May usage.

Data show that capacity utilization rates for various grades generally declined in April compared to March, especially for R32 and R134a, which fell 6.19% and 11.46% respectively, a relatively significant drop. This indicates that under cost constraints and inventory strategies, the industry did not significantly increase operating rates despite price increases; companies proactively controlled output to maintain prices.

During the period around the 2026 Chinese New Year, the operating rate for R32 hit a "low point", primarily due to sluggish domestic and export demand side. After the holiday, rates were raised to replenish stock and fulfill delayed orders from when quotas were exhausted the previous year. By the end of February, ongoing international conflicts and front-loaded demand driven by the "two new" policies led the fluorine refrigerant supply side to reduce output to support prices.

3. Post-Holiday Trend Outlook

Table 3: Domestic Fluorine Refrigerant R32 Data Forecast Table

| Item | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dichloromethane | 2,021 | 2,000 | -21 | -1.04% | CNY/ton |
| R32 Capacity Utilization | 65.95% | 62.38% | -3.57% | | % |

As temperatures rise further, increased retail sales of air conditioners will drive channel inventory digestion, making refrigerant trade activity more vibrant, and mainstream restocking demand is likely to be released intensively again. In the short term (April–June), air conditioner production plans remain relatively robust, especially with rising temperatures and stocking for the June 18 promotion, providing purchase support in May. However, air conditioner companies face cost pressures and have limited willingness to absorb high prices, creating some pressure on the demand side. This is reflected in the R32 industry, which continues to adhere to maintaining existing load levels, avoiding risky behavior like building inventory, and not paying for uncertainty.

After the holiday, upstream raw material prices such as hydrofluoric acid and dichloromethane may face a loosening at high levels as demand slows. If raw material costs decline rapidly, the price chain driven by cost support could loosen locally, potentially triggering phased selling by small and medium traders. Over the medium to long term, on the domestic demand side, when the first-quarter stocking period coincided with international conflicts, the second half of the year may see a contrast of "weak peak season, strong off-season." There is potential incremental demand for exports, which could catalyze new price trends in the third quarter. On the global demand side, 2026 is the last year of the baseline period for fluorocarbon quotas in the second group of developing countries. A5 countries, in their competition for import quotas, are likely to concentrate their import demand, representing the largest potential incremental source for exports this year.