Introduction: Since late April, the caprolactam market has declined from its highs. On the supply side, the restart of production units increased, while downstream PA6 demand was weak and procurement cautious, leading to a gradual drop in spot prices. After the holiday, cost-side benzene price fluctuations and geopolitical risks are intertwined. Caprolactam enterprises are indicating intentions for further production cuts, and the market may enter a phase of supply-demand negotiation and price rebalancing.

1. Market Review

Table 1 Domestic Caprolactam and Related Product Prices

| | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| Key Region | | | | | |
| Caprolactam | 12900 | 12520 | -380 | -2.95% | Yuan/Ton |
| Key Downstream | | | | | |
| PA6 Regular Spinning Chips | 13110 | 12810 | -300 | -2.29% | |
| PA6 High-Speed Spinning Chips | 13980 | 13800 | -180 | -1.29% | |
| Nylon Filament POY | 15800 | 15560 | -240 | -1.45% | |
| Key Related Product | | | | | |
| Pure Benzene | 8772 | 8698 | -74 | -0.84% | Yuan/Ton |

At the end of April, the caprolactam market continued its downtrend. Although upstream pure benzene prices were relatively firm, maintaining cost pressure on caprolactam, the supply-demand side was predominantly bearish. With the restart of previously maintained caprolactam units and further load reduction in downstream PA6 polymerization, the caprolactam supply situation became looser. Increased spot supply, particularly in Northern China, gradually weakened market sentiment. As of Thursday, the spot price of caprolactam in the East China market was 12,300-12,400 yuan/ton, on an acceptance delivery basis.

2. Data Analysis

Table 2 Domestic Caprolactam and Related Product Data

| Product | | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| Caprolactam | Production Gross Margin | -1952 | -2455 | -503 | -25.77% | Yuan/Ton |
| | Unit Operating Margin | 763 | 302 | -461 | -60.42% | Yuan/Ton |
| | Capacity Utilization | 74.91% | 74.59% | | -0.32% | |
| | Inventory | 3.6 | 4 | 0.4 | 11.11% | 10,000 Tons |
| Key Downstream | | | | | | |
| PA6 | Capacity Utilization | 66.04% | 64.04% | | -2% | |

With upstream raw materials pure benzene and sulfur products holding firm prices, the decline in caprolactam prices eroded profitability. The caprolactam production gross margin was -2,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 503 yuan/ton from the previous period. The caprolactam unit operating margin was 302 yuan/ton, down 461 yuan/ton from the previous period.

On the supply side, caprolactam output was 127,400 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 74.59%, down 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Cangzhou Xuyang Phase II was shut down for maintenance, while Hunan Petrochemical resumed production, resulting in minimal overall output change. On the downstream consumption side for PA6: several polymerization units in Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Henan, etc., reduced their operating rates, leading to lower caprolactam consumption.

After April, pressure from the demand side gradually fed back upstream. The difficulty in passing high-cost raw material prices downstream increased. The terminal textile and spinning sectors showed a strong risk-off sentiment, resulting in weak raw material procurement. PA6 chip product sales faced increasing pressure, inventories grew, and product prices continued to fall. The operating enthusiasm for PA6 polymerization decreased, with the capacity utilization rate gradually dropping from 72.5% to around 64%. Caprolactam maintenance was concentrated in early April, causing capacity utilization to drop to 71.54% and tightening supply. From late April onwards, previously maintained units gradually restarted, pushing caprolactam capacity utilization back up to around 75%.

3. Post-Holiday Trend Outlook

Table 3 Caprolactam Data Forecast

| | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change | Change % | Unit |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| Key Raw Material Price (Benzene) | 8698 | 8850 | 152 | +1.75% | Yuan/Ton |
| Caprolactam Capacity Utilization | 74.59% | 74% | | -0.59% | % |
| Key Downstream Capacity Utilization | 64% | 64% | | 0% | % |
| Caprolactam Inventory | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 10,000 Tons |

Results of a sentiment survey among caprolactam market participants for May showed 40% bearish, 30% neutral, and 30% bullish. The bearish view holds that negative feedback from the demand side will continue upstream, persistently pressuring the caprolactam market. The bullish view suggests that as the benzene-caprolactam spread compresses, the cost pressure on caprolactam enterprises will increase, leading to further production cuts and price support. The neutral view believes market uncertainty is high, and the caprolactam market may continue its long-short tug-of-war.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to stabilize or rebound after the holiday. Key points to watch: 1. Cost side. Post-holiday, the pure benzene fundamentals support continued destocking. Market sentiment is driven by crude oil, and buying interest may remain active. Post-holiday negotiation range is expected around 8,700-9,000 yuan/ton. 2. Supply side. Caprolactam enterprises intend to continue reducing output in May, which could lower supply later. 3. Demand side. Downstream PA6 operating rates are expected to remain low, keeping the demand side weak. Overall, the cost and supply support for the caprolactam market is expected to strengthen. Post-holiday caprolactam prices are expected to fluctuate within the 12,400-12,800 yuan/ton range.