Lead: Recently, a confluence of factors from both the cost and supply sides has driven a strong upward shift in the bisphenol A (BPA) market. On one hand, the renewed tensions between the US and Iran have pushed energy prices higher, significantly strengthening cost support. On the other hand, prolonged losses earlier had forced producers to implement concentrated production cuts, tightening spot supply. As of July 15, the mainstream quotation in East China rose to around 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 11% compared to July 1.
BPA theoretical profit losses have been prolonged
As shown in the chart, in 2026, only in March did BPA industry achieve brief profitability, driven by a sharp price surge along the industrial chain triggered by the US-Iran war. However, this did not last. Starting in April, the theoretical profit for China's BPA industry turned to a loss. Particularly during June and July, the theoretical loss deepened, ranging from 1,200 to 1,800 yuan/ton. This was the main reason behind the concentrated plant shutdowns and operating rate reductions by BPA producers.
Under losses, the BPA industry launched a "production cut wave"
Table: China BPA Maintenance Statistics (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)
| Province | Company | Capacity | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai | Gaohua Materials | 12.0 | Shut down on May 15, restart postponed to end of July |
| Northeast | Longjiang Chemical | 20.0 | Shut down for 20 days of maintenance on June 30, phenol/acetone unit also affected |
| Zhejiang | Nan Ya (Ningbo) | 17.0 | Operating on single line since June 1 (one line under 2-month maintenance) |
| Jiangsu | Chang Chun Chemical | 27.0 | Lines 1 & 2 both shut down for maintenance from June 20 to July 31 |
| Guangxi | Guangxi Huayi | 20.0 | Shut down for one month of maintenance on July 13 |
| Source: Chempricehub |
In July, the total BPA capacity involved in maintenance shutdowns in China amounted to 960,000 tons/year, with an expected production loss of 57,600 tons. Among them, the 120,000 tons/year BPA unit at Gaohua Materials postponed its restart to the end of July, while Guangxi Huayi brought forward its maintenance shutdown to July 13.
Entering July, the BPA industry operating rate hovered around 64%, a slight decline compared to June. As the loss-making period lengthened, most producers reduced their operating rates. Additionally, with earlier bargain-hunting downstream replenishment, company inventory pressure was absorbed. Consequently, spot market supply became tighter.
Downstream operating rates rose, boosting consumption
Since June, the operating rates of the main downstream sectors—PC and epoxy resin—have gradually increased as the concentrated maintenance period ended. The PC industry operating rate rose to around 78%, while the epoxy resin operating rate increased to around 45%. Combined with concentrated bargain-hunting spot purchasing by downstream buyers, overall BPA consumption rose, narrowing the supply-demand gap. However, as BPA prices continued to climb, downstream buying enthusiasm gradually waned.
In summary: The renewed US-Iran tensions triggered price increases along the industrial chain. Strong cost support, combined with tight supply of certified material and a phased improvement in downstream demand, collectively drove market prices higher. In the short term, sustained cost and supply-side positives may leave room for further BPA market upside. However, as prices keep rising, downstream acceptance of high prices diminishes and procurement becomes cautious, reducing trading activity—a factor that will restrain the later-stage price gains in the BPA market.
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