Outlook for Pyrolysis C9 Trends After the 2026 Spring Festival Holiday

Introduction: Pre-May Day trading in the cracked C9 market was sluggish, with small-lot demand-driven orders dominating the market and persistent tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players. Although international crude oil prices surged significantly, their transmission to the domestic chemical market was limited. Weak cost support, combined with sluggish downstream demand and a strong wait-and-see sentiment, sustained a bearish outlook. The cracked C9 market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend after the holiday.

1. Market Review (April 27 - April 30)

Table 1 Domestic Cracked C9 and Downstream Related Product Prices

In the week before the holiday, the cracked C9 market price continued its downward trajectory, with prices generally correcting across regions and the price center clearly shifting lower. International crude oil futures rose significantly this week, with a weekly gain of over 10%. Prices were supported by the stalemate in the Middle East geopolitical situation, blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and tight crude oil supply in the Persian Gulf. However, the actual boost to the domestic cracked C9 market was limited, and cost-side support was weak. The domestic gasoline market saw a slight rebound before the holiday, which led to some bottom-fishing for industrial aromatic solvents and a temporary improvement in transactions. Nevertheless, the average price of solvents still fell compared to the previous week, failing to improve the overall weak market pattern. The continuous decline in the price of the raw material cracked C9 further weakened the cost support for downstream resins. C9 thermal polymerization petroleum resin producers generally lowered their quotes, and the average transaction price for light-colored resins continued to fall sequentially. Downstream end-users showed weak pre-holiday stocking intentions. Market demand was insufficient, limited to essential needs. Market participants maintained a strong wait-and-see stance, resulting in stagnant and light overall trading. The cracked C9 market continued its weak downward trend.

2. Data Analysis

Table 2 Domestic Cracked C9 Downstream Related Product Data

In the current period, the profits along the downstream cracked C9 chain improved sequentially, with overall profitability recovering. The gross profit for industrial aromatic solvents stood at -745 yuan/ton this period, an increase of 445 yuan/ton (or 37.39%) compared to -1190 yuan/ton last period. This improvement was mainly attributed to the larger decline in the raw material cracked C9 price compared to the solvent product price, significantly narrowing the loss margin. The theoretical processing profit for C9 thermal polymerization petroleum resin reached 854 yuan/ton this period, up by 105 yuan/ton (or 14.02%) from last period's 749 yuan/ton. The smaller decline in resin prices relative to raw material prices led to a slight recovery in producer profitability.

Regarding operating rates, the overall operating rate across the industrial chain declined slightly this week. Cracked C9 production this period was 56,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.63%, down 0.9 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate for downstream C9 thermal polymerization petroleum resin was 40.43%, down 0.87 percentage points sequentially. The capacity utilization rate for industrial aromatic solvents was 47.89%, down 4.05 percentage points sequentially. The overall downstream operating rate remained weak, with no significant increase in end-user demand from sectors like coatings and adhesives. Despite the recovery in downstream profits, producers' enthusiasm for stocking up remained low, primarily maintaining small-lot procurement for essential needs. This provided a weak boost to demand for the raw material cracked C9, further suppressing market recovery.

3. Post-Holiday Forecast

Table 3 Domestic Cracked C9 Industry Chain Data Forecast

After the May Day holiday, the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors in the cracked C9 market will continue, making a shift away from the overall weak pattern difficult. On the cost side, international oil prices are expected to have some upside repair potential, providing weak support at the bottom for cracked C9. The downward trend is expected to slow down gradually, but the transmission is lagging and support is limited. The supply side remains overall stable, with no major plant startups or shutdowns planned after the holiday, keeping the industry supply pattern steady. The demand side remains the main depressing factor. It will be difficult for downstream resin and aromatic solvent producers to significantly increase their operating rates. Sustained post-holiday restocking by end-users is expected to be weak, with limited increases in essential demand. The wait-and-see sentiment in the market will persist.

By category, the industrial aromatic solvent market is expected to stabilize initially and then weaken following gasoline trends. The negative profit margin is continuing to recover, but its boost to raw material procurement is limited. Transactions in the C9 thermal polymerization petroleum resin market are expected to remain stagnant, leaving little room for producers to raise their quotes. In summary, the minor recovery in costs will be insufficient to counteract the pressure from weak demand. The post-holiday cracked C9 market is expected to operate with a minor volatile and weak trend. Downside room for prices will narrow, maintaining an overall pattern of weak fluctuation.