[Introduction]: Pre-holiday stocking sentiment before the 2026 May Day holiday remained subdued, with the declining market trend increasing industry participants' caution. End-user factories showed insufficient just-in-time replenishment, while holders faced difficulties in offloading cargo and were forced to offer concessions under pressure. The market center of gravity drifted lower, with weak transaction follow-through. Currently, phenol prices are inverted relative to its main feedstock, benzene—an abnormal phenomenon. The price gap between the two is expected to gradually narrow in the later period. Considering the low participation of end-users in pre-holiday stockpiling, post-holiday replenishment may occur, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the post-holiday market.

1. Phenol Market Review

In late April, the domestic phenol market atmosphere was relatively subdued. The prices of both feedstocks trended higher, but cost-side support was insufficient. The price correlation between phenol and its main feedstock, benzene, declined, even resulting in price inversion (phenol lower than benzene). This stirred occasional intentions to support prices in the phenol market. However, due to low pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm among downstream end-users, purchasing was mainly for immediate needs, with low buying interest. Suppliers encountered difficulties in selling at supported prices and cautiously offered concessions. Influenced by high feedstock costs, deepening losses at phenol-ketone enterprises, and average cost pressures, the room for price cuts was limited. Price fluctuations were narrow, and transaction follow-through remained weak.

2. Phenol and Related Product Data Analysis

In late April, profit losses at phenol-ketone units and the major downstream product bisphenol A were greater than those at the feedstock benzene. Specifically, profits at phenol-ketone enterprises relied mainly on acetone for support. Phenol prices fluctuated little but were slightly weaker overall, while acetone showed a broad upward trend toward the end of the month, helping to partially repair the profit margins of the phenol-ketone industry. Although phenol-ketone enterprises were loss-making, industry operating rates remained relatively stable, fluctuating around 84-85%. The bisphenol A industry saw concentrated maintenance shutdowns in May, with some units reducing operating rates in late April, leading to a decline in the industry’s operating rate.

3. Post-Holiday Phenol Trend Outlook

Combining cost and supply-demand data analysis, the supply increase in the phenol market after the holiday is expected to be limited. While the operating rate of the main downstream bisphenol A industry will decline, given the overall low pre-holiday stocking sentiment among end-users, attention should be paid to post-holiday replenishment activities. Concurrently, feedstock benzene prices are expected to trend higher, providing positive cost-side support. At the beginning of the month, holders will face less pressure to sell and may adopt a price-boosting stance. Cautious operations are recommended.

As of April 30, 2026, the sentiment survey of domestic phenol market participants regarding the May outlook shows: 40% bullish, 40% bearish, and 20% neutral.

Bullish view: In late April, the price correlation between phenol and benzene weakened, and the abnormal phenomenon of phenol trading below benzene may not persist. In May, feedstock benzene prices are expected to improve, potentially providing periodic cost-side support. The inverted price spread between phenol and benzene is likely to gradually narrow. Holders are operating cautiously, while end-user procurement remains just-in-time, leading to expectations for price repair.

Bearish view: Market participants are highly focused on the timeline for product output from Shandong Ruilin’s phenol-ketone unit, which may exert periodic negative pressure on the market. Additionally, the major downstream bisphenol A industry will see increased maintenance-related losses in May, reducing demand for phenol. Other end-users are also cautious in procurement. The phenol market was notably constrained by demand in late April, and the situation may not improve significantly in May, limiting the market trend.

Neutral view: Given firm feedstock costs, a slight increase in supply, reduced import/export activity, and expected demand declines, bullish and bearish factors are balanced. Price fluctuation ranges may be limited.