Summary: Before the holiday, the DOTP market experienced a decline followed by a rebound. Currently, the mainstream price in the Zhejiang market is 9550 CNY/tonne, down 250 CNY/tonne from April 23. Under the tug-of-war between costs and demand, DOTP producers' profits have turned into losses, with the loss widening. Taking the Zhejiang region as an example, the current theoretical profit for DOTP producers is -171 CNY/tonne.

1. Market Review

Figure 1: Price trend of major domestic DOTP markets (unit: CNY/tonne)

Source: chempricehub Information

Table 1: Price list of domestic DOTP and related products

| Market | Price Condition | April 23 | April 30 | Change | Change % |
|--------|-----------------|----------|----------|--------|----------|
| Shandong | Ex-works | 9650 | 9400 | -250 | -2.59% |
| Zhejiang | Ex-works | 9800 | 9550 | -250 | -2.55% |
| Jiangsu | Delivered | 9850 | 9600 | -250 | -2.54% |
| North China | Ex-works | 9700 | 9500 | -200 | -2.06% |
| Guangdong | Delivered | 9950 | 9800 | -150 | -1.51% |
| Key Upstream | | | | | |
| Shandong Octanol | Ex-works | 9050 | 8700 | -350 | -3.87% |

Source: chempricehub Information

Before the May Day holiday, the DOTP market showed a trend of declining first and then rebounding. As of now, the mainstream price in the Zhejiang DOTP market is 9550 CNY/tonne, down 250 CNY/tonne from April 23. Due to persistently weak end-user demand and the approaching holiday stocking period, DOTP producers were eager to secure orders and recover funds. At the beginning of the week, they generally adopted a strategy of reducing prices to boost sales, which dragged down the DOTP market price under periodic downward pressure. On the feedstock side, prices of octanol and PTA diverged, with mixed performances. The downward room for DOTP production costs was limited, and industry profits were continuously squeezed. Most producers turned from profit to loss, highlighting operational pressure. On the macro front, the outlook for US-Iran negotiations remained uncertain, and disruptions to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, exacerbating concerns about crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions, supporting a strong rise in international oil prices. External positive factors boosted overall market sentiment. As the May Day holiday approached, downstream restocking demand was released at low prices. On Wednesday, transaction volumes at low prices increased significantly. Coupled with high cost pressure, DOTP sellers' willingness to support prices strengthened, prompting a slight rebound in low market prices. However, end-user rigid demand support was limited, and purchasing at high prices was cautious, limiting the sustainability of transactions. Trading at high prices gradually cooled down. Overall, cost-side support currently still exists, and producers are under loss pressure. Market participants mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude while supporting prices.

2. Data Analysis

Figure 2: Domestic DOTP production margin and price trend (unit: CNY/tonne)

Source: chempricehub Information

Table 2: Data sheet for domestic DOTP and related products

| Product Name | | 2025/4/23 | 2025/4/30 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|--------------|--------------|-----------|-----------|--------|----------|------|
| DOTP | Production Margin | -8 | -171 | -163 | -2038% | CNY/tonne |
| | Capacity Utilization | 69% | 63% | -6% | | |
| Product Name | Key Upstream | | | | | |
| Octanol | Capacity Utilization | 86% | 98% | +12% | | |
| Source: chempricehub Information | | | | | | |

Figure 3: Comparison of weekly operating rates for domestic DOTP and related products

Source: chempricehub Information

Recently, the theoretical profit margin of the DOTP industry turned from profit to loss, with the loss continuously widening. Taking the Zhejiang region as an example, the theoretical profit of the sample DOTP enterprise is currently -171 CNY/tonne, down 163 CNY/tonne from last Thursday. End-user demand performance was poor, dragging down DOTP prices. On the cost side, feedstock octanol and PTA prices showed mixed movements, causing DOTP price declines to outpace cost declines, thus deepening the losses for enterprises.

The continuous narrowing of profit margins significantly affected the production enthusiasm of DOTP enterprises. Coupled with the approaching May Day holiday, the overall capacity utilization of the industry declined. Currently, the DOTP operating rate is around 63%, down 6 percentage points from last Thursday. It is expected that during the May Day holiday, the operating rate will further drop to around 59%, and then gradually recover after the holiday.

Overall, the DOTP market is currently facing dual pressure from costs and demand: on one hand, the room for feedstock cost reduction is limited, putting pressure on enterprise profitability; on the other hand, end-user rigid demand lacks sustained support, making price increases difficult. Sustained negative profits will suppress enterprises' short-term production willingness. It is expected that the industry operating rate will remain at a low level during the holiday. After the holiday, close attention should be paid to the recovery pace of end-user demand and changes in feedstock prices. If demand improves or costs ease, enterprise profits and operating rates may gradually recover.

3. Post-Holiday Outlook

Table 3: Forecast data sheet for domestic DOTP

| | 2026/4/30 | 2026/5/6E | Change | Change % | Unit |
|--------------|-----------|-----------|--------|----------|------|
| DOTP Price | 9550 | 9600 | +50 | +0.52% | CNY/tonne |
| Feedstock Octanol Price | 8700 | 8700 | 0 | 0 | CNY/tonne |
| Capacity Utilization | 63% | 63% | 0 | 0 | |
| Source: chempricehub Information | | | | | |

Figure 4: Changes in major DOTP markets over the next three weeks (CNY/tonne)

Source: chempricehub Information

From the cost side, although the core feedstock octanol is expected to see continued growth in operating rates, increasing supply-demand pressure, the price center is likely to consolidate mainly due to firm cost support. For the other feedstock PTA, the pace of social destocking is accelerating, coupled with solid cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. Overall, DOTP feedstock costs are expected to remain firm and strong. Currently, industry enterprises are generally in a loss-making state, with significant cost pressure, which will provide strong support for low-end DOTP market prices.

From the supply-demand perspective, due to continuous profit compression, the production enthusiasm of DOTP enterprises is limited, and there is an expectation of a subsequent decline in operating rates. Meanwhile, as the May Day holiday enters next week, downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase will weaken, and overall end-user demand will be weak. Market trading activity during the holiday is expected to be relatively light. Some enterprises may face certain inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday.

In summary, the short-term DOTP market still has cost-side support, but demand-side maintains low-level rigid procurement with limited follow-through at high prices. Costs and demand form a clear game pattern, thus limiting the upside potential of prices. However, considering high costs and current losses, the general sentiment among sellers is to support prices and wait and see, so the downside room for prices is also limited. It is expected that the DOTP market will continue to show a stalemate with firmness and slight fluctuations in the initial period after the holiday, with the price range operating between 9550-9700 CNY/tonne. Subsequent attention should be focused on changes in feedstock prices and the pace of downstream high-price follow-through after the holiday.