According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of lithium carbonate has recently declined from a high level. As of February 9th, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on Business Society was 136,000 yuan per ton, representing a decrease of 6.21% compared to the same period last week (February 2nd), a month-on-month decline of 2.86%, and a year-on-year increase of 71.7%.

On the supply side: Expectations of relaxed imports continue to intensify. As the Spring Festival approaches, some lithium salt plants have scheduled maintenance or holidays, leading to an expected month-on-month decrease of 16.4% in China's total lithium carbonate production in February, reaching 82,000 tons. However, the early resumption of production at Brazil's Sigma lithium mine and a 44.82% month-on-month increase in Chile's lithium salt exports in January to 16,950 tons have raised concerns about short-term supply pressure. Although such supply increases are mostly in the form of pulse shipments rather than a trend reversal, they have further suppressed prices amid fragile market sentiment. At the same time, domestic lithium salt plants have ample raw material inventories, and their willingness to stock up for the long term has increased. While traders maintain a strong price-supporting mentality, the market has reached a consensus on expectations of oversupply, further exacerbating downward price pressure.

On the demand side: Short-term seasonal contraction. During the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market for lithium carbonate entered its traditional off-season, with demand showing a phased contraction. The production schedules of downstream cathode material companies have declined by 10–15% month-on-month due to holiday shutdowns and equipment maintenance. Among them, the operating rate of ternary materials has dropped significantly, while lithium iron phosphate has remained relatively stable due to support from energy storage demand. However, leading companies' production schedules in February still fell by 17% month-on-month. Meanwhile, downstream companies have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, with downstream inventories surging sharply over the past two weeks. Most companies have already covered their February demand, with some even stocking up in advance for early March. In recent days, restocking activities have essentially ended, leading to a significant slowdown in procurement demand in the short term. Only a small amount of rigid demand restocking remains, which is insufficient to provide effective support for prices. Additionally, the phased restocking that occurred during the sharp price decline (such as the approximately 10,000 tons of restocking on February 5th, the day of the price limit drop) was mostly short-term opportunistic buying by downstream players rather than a trend-driven recovery in demand, failing to alter the short-term weak demand landscape.

Increased disturbances in the futures market and panic sentiment accelerated the price decline. The sharp drop in futures prices triggered panic in the spot market, completely undermining traders' price-supporting mentality and significantly boosting their willingness to sell. To avoid the risk of further price declines, some traders opted to sell their inventories at low prices, further depressing spot prices. Meanwhile, downstream companies took advantage of the price decline to delay procurement, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the spot market. Excessive focus on short-term supply increases and weak demand further reinforced bearish sentiment, causing prices to fall faster than justified by fundamental conditions. Panic selling became a significant driver of the price decline.

Business Society's lithium carbonate data analyst believes: Multiple factors have combined to drive the decline in lithium carbonate prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand will remain in the off-season, and the recovery of sentiment in the futures market will take time. Lithium carbonate prices still face some downward pressure. However, in the long term, the growth prospects of the downstream new energy industry remain strong, and demand for lithium carbonate is expected to steadily increase.