Lead-in: Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran have pushed up the average price of Brent crude, providing strong cost support for cracked C9. Domestically, ethylene units have ramped up operating rates, with a slight increase in supply marginally suppressing prices. Downstream trends diverged, with C9 resin profits rising and aromatic solvent profits weakening in the short term but expected to recover later. Enterprises concentrated their stockpiling, and multiple positive factors dominated the market, driving a significant rise in cracked C9 prices this week, with prices expected to maintain a range-bound-to-firm trend in the short term.
Domestic spot market: National average price surged, with notable regional differences in gains
Price comparison of cracked C9, 2025–2026 (RMB/ton)
[Chart omitted]
Data source: Chempricehub Information
Table 1: Comparison of regional cracked C9 prices in China (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Change (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracked C9 | Northeast | 4,050 | 3,850 | +200 | +5.19% | RMB/ton |
| North China | 4,550 | 4,350 | +200 | +4.60% | RMB/ton | |
| East China | 4,612 | 4,112 | +500 | +12.16% | RMB/ton | |
| Central China | 4,550 | 4,150 | +400 | +9.64% | RMB/ton | |
| South China | 4,372 | 4,241 | +131 | +3.09% | RMB/ton |
Data source: Chempricehub Information
During the week, the national average price of cracked C9 stood at 4,567 RMB/ton, up 360 RMB/ton from the previous period's 4,207 RMB/ton, representing an overall increase of 8.56%. Listing prices at refineries across all regions were raised significantly in sync, with notable differences in the magnitude of gains across regions. East China led the national gains with a single-week increase of 500 RMB/ton, supported mainly by phased maintenance at sample enterprises within the region and tight regional supply. Central China rose by 400 RMB/ton, while Northeast and North China each rose by 200 RMB/ton, and South China saw a relatively modest increase of only 131 RMB/ton. Independent refineries followed the integrated oil giants in successive price hikes, with mainstream market quotations rising mainly in the range of 200–500 RMB/ton. Spot market trading sentiment was moderate, with downstream buyers replenishing stock on a need-to basis.
Core drivers: Triple-factor interplay, with cost and demand positives dominating the market
Table 2: Comparison of China's cracked C9 industry chain prices (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Previous Period | Current Period | Change | Change (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracked C9 | National | 4,567 | 4,207 | +360 | +8.56% | RMB/ton |
| Industrial aromatic solvent | National | 5,953 | 5,774 | +179 | +3.10% | RMB/ton |
| C9 petroleum resin | National | 6,062 | 5,602 | +460 | +8.21% | RMB/ton |
Data source: Chempricehub Information
Cost side: Recurring Middle East geopolitical disruptions pushed up average crude prices, providing a strong floor
This week, US–Iran tensions fluctuated repeatedly. In the early stage, expectations of a ceasefire negotiation briefly eased concerns over crude supply, and oil prices pulled back slightly. Subsequently, as the conflict escalated, coupled with a sharp decline in US crude inventories and disrupted shipping through the strait, supply risks resurfaced. The weekly average price of Brent crude rose by USD 2.8/bbl week-on-week, an increase of 3.13%. Despite bearish factors such as peace talk expectations, weak demand, and rate hike expectations, the geopolitical premium and inventory declines lifted average crude prices. The cost advantage was transmitted downstream through the cracked C9 industry chain, reinforcing refineries' willingness to firm up prices and serving as the core support for this round of price increases.
Supply side: Multiple units raised operating loads, with slightly increased supply forming a mild bearish factor
No new cracker maintenance was initiated domestically, and units such as Guangxi Petrochemical ramped up operating rates. This week, cracked C9 output reached 61,100 tons, up 500 tons month-on-month, with capacity utilization at 76.86%, up 0.63 percentage points. The industry still has multiple long-term idled crackers, with total maintenance capacity of 481,000 tons. However, the ramped-up loads offset the reduction, leaving supply slightly looser—exerting only mild downward pressure on prices, insufficient to counterbalance the dual positives of cost and demand. On the downstream resin side, Gaocheng Hongda has resumed operations, and Liaoning Yufu is expected to restart next week, indicating room for incremental downstream demand growth in the medium-to-long term.
Demand side: Diverging trends in downstream operating rates and profits, with concentrated stockpiling demand from the resin segment
The two major downstream sectors showed diverging profitability, but the outlook for profit recovery is clear. The operating rate of C9 hot-polymerized petroleum resin rose to 45.21%, with gross profit up 16.18% to 158 RMB/ton and ex-works prices raised by 460 RMB/ton. Coatings and adhesive enterprises concentrated their restocking activities. Gross profit is expected to increase to 180 RMB/ton in the next period, making this the core demand pillar. The industrial aromatic solvent market held operating rates steady, with gross profit plunging 55.72% month-on-month to 182 RMB/ton, primarily because raw material price increases outpaced finished product gains. Gasoline market conditions underpinned essential demand, and gross profit is forecast to recover to 220 RMB/ton next week. Although downstream buyers showed some wait-and-see attitude toward high-priced raw materials, the improving resin profitability drove concentrated stockpiling, with essential demand continuing to underpin the cracked C9 market.
Industry chain transmission: Crude cost transmitted top-down, resin profits feeding back into upstream procurement
This week, the benefit of rising crude oil was transmitted in full from top to bottom through cracked C9 to the two downstream branches—resin and aromatic solvent. Among them, the price increase of C9 petroleum resin exceeded that of the raw material cracked C9, driving a month-on-month recovery in resin processing margins. In contrast, the price increase of industrial aromatic solvent was significantly lower than that of the raw material, compressing short-term profits, although the market broadly expects profit recovery next week.
Overall, improved downstream resin profitability alleviated cost pressure on factories, with increased proactive price-locking and batch stockpiling operations, forming a positive feedback loop on the demand side. The only marginal bearish factor was the slight increase in supply. In the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream forces, cost and demand positives held absolute sway. Cargo holders faced no evident selling pressure, and market negotiation momentum continued to shift upward. Market participants hold strong expectations of a firm market in the near term.
Summary and Outlook
In summary, three positives dominated this week's significant surge in cracked C9: repeated Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up crude costs, recovery of C9 petroleum resin processing margins, and phased downstream stockpiling demand. The only mild suppressant was the slight supply increase from higher ethylene unit loads. Overall, the positives significantly outweighed the negatives, driving cracked C9 prices across the country to soar, with spot trading improving continuously.
Looking ahead to next week, international crude futures are expected to continue their upward trend, with cost-side support strengthening further. No new cracker startup or shutdown plans are in place, and industry output and capacity utilization are expected to continue rising modestly, with the loose supply pattern persisting. On the demand side, Liaoning Yufu's C9 resin unit is scheduled to restart next week after completing maintenance, driving a slight uptick in overall downstream operating rates. Industrial aromatic solvent gross profits are expected to recover, and the relatively firm gasoline market will continue to support essential solvent demand, with overall downstream purchasing demand rising modestly. Strong crude costs combined with dual improvements in downstream demand and profitability form multiple layers of support, with the supply increase only mildly capping upside. Cracked C9 is expected to maintain a range-bound-to-firm upward trajectory next week, with mainstream national transaction references of 4,550–4,750 RMB/ton and a weekly gain of approximately 100 RMB/ton. Key factors to monitor going forward include developments in Middle East geopolitical tensions, international crude price fluctuations, downstream resin and aromatic solvent unit operating rates, and end-user procurement and restocking节奏.
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