Morning Market Briefing on the C5 Industrial Chain Market (20260909)

I. Key Focus Areas

1. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and continued U.S.-Iran military confrontation kept supply risks elevated and pushed international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX crude futures for October delivery rose $1.55/bbl to $93.03, up 1.69% from the previous session; ICE Brent futures for November delivery rose $0.92/bbl to $97.92, up 0.95%. China's INE crude futures contract 2610 rose 14.8 yuan/bbl to 703.3 yuan/bbl, and added another 11.4 yuan/bbl to 714.7 yuan/bbl in the night session.

2. As of the 8th, Japan naphtha settled at 894.5 USD/mt, up 25 USD/mt from the previous trading day; Singapore naphtha settled at 95.24 USD/bbl, up 2.64 USD/bbl from the previous session.

3. Yesterday, major domestic pyrolysis C5 producers raised prices, with East China and South China prices increased by 200 yuan/mt to 6,900-7,000 yuan/mt. At present, crude oil keeps rising during trading sessions, Middle East tensions are escalating, and low domestic refined product inventories are supporting light components. Shandong mixed C5 prices at 7,830 yuan/mt support private producers' pricing and underpin major producers' quotations. Pentadiene monomer inventories remain low and firm, while resin offtake is generally average.

4. Yesterday, the pyrolysis C5 raffinate market prices rose. With the U.S.-Iran conflict escalating, crude oil stayed at high levels. The gasoline market moved sideways at high levels with improved trading sentiment. Supply-demand support from the analogous product mixed C5 weakened. The pyrolysis C5 raffinate market staged a catch-up rise.

5. Yesterday, the domestic piperylene market continued to strengthen. Feedstock pyrolysis C5 prices from major producers rose, and geopolitical conflict pushed up crude futures and commodity markets. Product supply was tight, and producers held firm prices and were reluctant to sell. Main ex-works prices were 8,500-9,300 yuan/mt.

6. Yesterday, domestic isoprene extended its uptrend. Pyrolysis C5 prices from major producers rose, geopolitical conflict pushed up crude futures and bulk commodities, and tight isoprene supply remained a factor. Producers held firm prices and limited sales. Main quotes in the East China market were at 13,200-13,800 yuan/mt.

7. Yesterday, dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) ex-works/self-pickup prices continued to move up, with the range at 8,100-8,800 yuan/mt. The low end was reserved for regular customers, while spot supply moved toward the high end, and small-lot deals climbed above 9,000 yuan/mt. Spot supply remains tight, feedstock prices continue to rise, and cost support is further solidified. Supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the short term, and high prices will remain.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road-marking C5 petroleum resin were at 9,300-10,300 yuan/mt. International crude oil kept rising, domestic C5 resources were tight, and prices continued to be pushed up, causing price inversion in some regions. Resin operating rates fell, exacerbating supply tightness in northern China, and negotiated prices continued to be pushed higher.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive C5 petroleum resin were at 10,500-12,500 yuan/mt, and mainstream prices for DCPD-removed adhesive C5 petroleum resin were at 10,000-10,800 yuan/mt. Spot supply remained tight and costs kept rising, while downstream players became more risk-averse. Market transaction volumes were deadlocked, and negotiated prices continued to be pushed up steadily.

Core logic: pyrolysis C5 rising; isoprene rising; piperylene rising; DCPD rising; C5 petroleum resin steady with modest upward push.

II. Price Sheet

Table 1 Domestic pyrolysis C5 industry chain summary (Unit: yuan/mt)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices are expected to remain firm. Shandong mixed C5 prices are high, though a price gap versus pyrolysis C5 still exists. However, oil product market regulation has strengthened, which may have a noticeable effect on light components, so cautious monitoring is required. As for pentadiene monomers, low inventories are supporting prices, but resin offtake is average, with road-marking resin demand especially weak due to limited construction volumes.

The pyrolysis C5 raffinate market is expected to remain stable and consolidate. Refinery gasoline inventories are low, giving refiners ample ability to hold prices firm. Port order backlogs provide support for the low end of the mixed C5 market. However, with recent tightening of market trading regulations and considering all factors, Chempricehub Information expects pyrolysis C5 raffinate refinery prices to remain stable and consolidate today.

Overnight crude oil prices rose, boosting market participants' enthusiasm to enter the market. Buying and selling sentiment in the gasoline market improved. The supply-side support for mixed C5 has come to an end, and Chempricehub Information expects mixed C5 prices to face a downward bias today.

Isoprene is expected to run firm. The tight supply pattern will continue, and the cost side is strengthening, supporting producers' stance of holding prices firm and limiting sales. Prices are expected to consolidate on the strong side.

Piperylene is expected to consolidate firmly. The cost side has strengthened recently, combined with lower plant output and increased self-use volumes, leaving limited tradable resources in the market. Piperylene is expected to remain firm.

DCPD prices are expected to remain strong. The tight spot supply is unlikely to ease in the short term, while feedstock prices provide clear cost support. Although demand is expected to weaken due to tight supply and high prices, the market will likely maintain an upward trend from the low end in the short term. Attention should be paid to auction trends across regions today.

For road-marking C5 petroleum resin, downstream construction volumes are concentrated in northern China, and feedstock C5 prices have risen noticeably, so negotiated prices continue to inch up. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, producers face rising cost pressure, and downstream rigid demand is steady-to-higher; given the cost pressure, prices will continue to edge up.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2 Domestic pyrolysis C5 industry chain data overview (Unit: 10,000 mt)