1. Key Focus Areas

1. Crude Oil and Naphtha Markets:

   • Supply risks for Saudi crude have intensified, while the stalemate in US-Iran relations continues, driving international oil prices higher. The NYMEX WTI October contract closed at $105.83/bbl, up $4.44 (+4.38% WoW); the ICE Brent November contract closed at $108.75/bbl, up $3.07 (+2.90% WoW). China's INE crude oil futures November 2026 contract rose by 59.7 to 836.2 RMB/bbl, with the night session gaining another 23.8 to reach 860 RMB/bbl.
   • As of the 15th, Japanese naphtha closed at $956.37/ton, down $26.02 from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $102.47/barrel, down $3.01 from the previous trading day.

2. Domestic Cracked C5 and Downstream Products:

   • Yesterday, domestic cracked C5 prices from major producers remained stable. However, Shandong mixed C5 prices fell significantly. Private enterprise auctions performed poorly, leading to some inventory accumulation and raising market risks associated with high prices. In terms of deep processing, piperylene monomer prices remained firm. Resin prices were supported by costs, but end-user procurement enthusiasm remained weak.
   • The cracked C5 raffinate market maintained stability by executing existing contracts, though sporadic declines occurred in other segments. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, gasoline markets in Shandong saw price increases, but downstream reception was lackluster. Favorable supply-demand conditions for the substitute product, mixed C5, have ended, leading to price declines. The cracked C5 raffinate market is holding prices steady while waiting for clearer signals, with minor declines in some areas.
   • Domestic piperylene prices rose primarily due to raw material costs and supply constraints. Factory output remains low, creating a tight supply side that supports sellers' resistance to price cuts. Downstream users are passively accepting higher prices, focusing on rigid demand purchases. Mainstream ex-factory prices range from 8,800 to 9,600 RMB/ton.
   • The domestic isoprene market rose as the tight supply situation persists. Combined with firm cost support, this has reinforced sellers' willingness to hold prices. Major downstream SIS (styrene-isoprene-styrene block copolymer) producers followed suit with passive price increases. Mainstream bid/ask prices in East China ranged from 13,600 to 14,200 RMB/ton.
   • Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) maintained a firm trend, ranging between 8,600 and 9,200 RMB/ton. Lower-end prices stabilized for regular customers, while higher-end spot negotiations continued, with some auction prices slightly elevated. Spot supply remains tight, inventories are generally low, and raw material cost support suggests that high prices will persist in the short term.
   • Mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,600 to 10,600 RMB/ton. Sustained rises in international oil prices and tight domestic C5 resources are pushing prices higher. This has led to localized negative margins (price inversion) for some resins. Overall demand has increased slightly, continuing to push negotiated prices upward.
   • Mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 11,000 to 13,000 RMB/ton, while de-cycloaddition adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 10,600 to 11,000 RMB/ton. Tight spot availability and rising costs have heightened risk-aversion among downstream buyers, leading to a slight increase in stocking activity. Short-term shortages remain the dominant factor, pushing negotiated prices higher.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 consolidating; Isoprene rising; Piperylene rising; DCPD rising; C5 petroleum resins showing small upward adjustments amidst stability.

2. Price Summary Table

Table 1: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

3. Market Outlook

• Cracked C5 & Mixed C5: Domestic cracked C5 prices are expected to remain temporarily stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices are falling back, and private enterprise auctions are performing moderately. Monitor potential risks arising from changes in the light fraction market. However, mixed C5 still maintains a price differential compared to cracked C5, providing some support. Piperylene monomer inventories are low, keeping prices firm. Resin sales volumes are moderate but supported by costs.
• Cracked C5 Raffinate: The market is expected to weaken further. Gasoline refinery inventories are low, giving refiners confidence to hold prices. However, favorable supply-demand conditions in the mixed C5 market are diminishing, leading to slight declines. Considering all factors, Chempricehub Information predicts that today's cracked C5 raffinate prices from refineries will likely decline slightly.
• Mixed C5: Overnight crude oil prices rose. Yesterday, large-volume transactions at ports were robust, and gasoline refinery inventories remain low, suggesting refiners may hold prices and ship out today. Mixed C5 shipments were acceptable yesterday. Chempricehub Information predicts the mixed C5 market will consolidate within a narrow range today.
• Isoprene: Expected to trade firmly. With crude oil closing higher and the tight supply situation for isoprene persisting, factories are inclined to hold prices and be reluctant to sell, supporting a strong consolidation trend.
• Piperylene: Expected to maintain a firm trend. High cost inputs, combined with reduced factory output and increased self-consumption stocks, limit tradable resources in the market. Piperylene is expected to continue its strong performance.
• Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD): Expected to remain at elevated levels. While downstream demand is moderate, spot supplies are tight and unlikely to ease in the short term. Strong cost support from raw materials, coupled with pre-holiday stocking decisions ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, means supply and cost factors will dominate, maintaining a firm high-price trend.
• C5 Petroleum Resins: For road marking paint resin, construction volumes are concentrated in northern regions. Rising raw material C5 prices keep resin costs high in the short term, and some production willingness has decreased, leading to continued small price increases. For adhesive resin, manufacturers face rising cost pressures, and rigid downstream demand is increasing, also supporting small price hikes.

4. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with percentage changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with percentage changes within 0–3%.