Introduction: In the first half of 2026, after a period of low consolidation, the MMA market experienced a sharp upward trend from March to April driven by geopolitical factors, far exceeding industry expectations. Under the influence of cost, supply, and export factors, the market rose continuously for a month. However, due to the difficulty of passing on costs downstream, consumption declined, leading to production cuts. Starting in mid-April, the market entered a volatile downward trend, returning to supply-demand fundamentals.
I. MMA Spot Prices and Regional Price Spreads
The figure captions for Figure 1 and Figure 2 have been omitted as they are image-only content.
In the first half of 2026, the MMA market saw a sharp rise followed by a decline, with an average price of 11,892.08 yuan/ton, up 24.17% year-on-year. In January-February, the MMA market hovered at low levels, with trading in the 9,000-9,700 yuan/ton range. In March-April, the market surged sharply and then consolidated at high levels, with the increase far exceeding industry expectations. The high point for East China MMA in early April exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the rise were geopolitical factors, cost and supply support, and export factors. Subsequently, due to insufficient domestic demand and export support, the market began to decline in mid-April, returning to supply-demand dynamics. In May, the market saw a brief boost from exports and supply, but the momentum was limited. Prices first rose and then fell during the month, with the monthly average down 10.69%. In June, after narrow consolidation in the first half of the month, multiple bearish factors coexisted, and the market entered a downward channel in the second half, falling sharply.
In terms of price spreads, the difference between South China and East China was relatively large in mid-March, exceeding 1,000 yuan/ton. At other times, the spread remained at 500-800 yuan/ton, within a relatively reasonable range. The main factor affecting the spread was the difference in regional supply-demand relationships.
II. MMA Supply Changes in H1 2026
The figure captions for Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6 have been omitted as they are image-only content.
In 2026, the average monthly domestic MMA output was higher than in 2025. From January to June 2026, the average monthly output was 157,600 tons, an increase of 12,500 tons compared to 145,100 tons in the same period of 2025. Total output from January to June 2026 was 945,700 tons, up 8.63% year-on-year. The output growth was mainly due to dual support from a larger capacity base and higher capacity utilization.
From January to June 2026, MMA capacity utilization exceeded the level of the same period in 2025 in some periods. Overall capacity utilization from January to June 2026 was 64%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year.
From January to June, domestic MMA production losses due to plant maintenance totaled 174,700 tons, an increase of 84,600 tons or 91.16% year-on-year, indicating an increase in maintenance losses for producing enterprises.
According to customs statistics, China's cumulative import of methacrylate from January to May 2026 was 1.61 tons, down 55.65% year-on-year. The total import volume for H1 2026 is estimated to be 18,600 tons. Import sources were mainly concentrated in Asia, with the share from other regions declining. In recent years, China's self-sufficiency rate for MMA has been increasing, while import dependence has remained low, with no significant impact on MMA prices.
III. MMA Consumption Changes in H1 2026
The figure captions for Figures 7, 8, 9, and 10 have been omitted as they are image-only content.
In the first half of the year, monthly profit changes for the two MMA production processes: In January-February, prices were low, limiting profit margins. In March, influenced by the Middle East incident, prices along the industrial chain rose collectively, improving profits. Subsequently, as prices peaked and then fell, profitability in May-June was weaker than the average level in March-April. On the downstream side, taking PMMA pellets and pure acrylic emulsion as examples: For PMMA pellets, profit changes in Q1 were limited. In Q2, profits first increased and then decreased due to their own prices and raw materials, with a significant decline in June, and the operating rate also dropped to 42%. Pure acrylic emulsion was loss-making in Q1. Although it improved slightly in Q2, the profitability level remained low. Correspondingly, due to plant maintenance around the Spring Festival, the average operating rate for pure acrylic emulsion in Q2 increased by 4 percentage points compared to Q1.
As of the end of June, the capacity utilization of downstream PMMA pellets and pure acrylic emulsion was lower than at the beginning of the year, with PMMA pellets showing a larger change.
Taking the downstream PMMA pellet industry in Q2 as an example: The capacity utilization in Q2 was lower than the Q1 average, and output fluctuated accordingly, down 4.70%. In addition, the overall operating rate of the ACR industry also showed a downward trend, so it can be seen that the average consumption in Q2 was lower than in Q1.
IV. MMA Supply-Demand Balance in H1 2026
Table 1: MMA Product Supply-Demand Balance, Jan-Jun 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons)
| Item | 2025 H1 | 2026 H1 | Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output | 87.06 | 94.57 | 7.51 | 8.63% |
| Import Volume | 4.36 | 1.86 | -2.5 | -57.34% |
| Total Supply | 91.42 | 96.43 | 5.01 | 5.48% |
| Downstream Consumption | 67.93 | 67 | -0.93 | -1.37% |
| Export Volume | 13.87 | 19.82 | 5.95 | 42.90% |
| Total Demand | 81.8 | 86.82 | 5.02 | 6.14% |
| Supply-Demand Gap | 9.62 | 9.61 | -0.01 | -0.10% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
On the supply side, in the first half of 2026, the domestic MMA capacity base increased. In Q1, a new producer, Yulong Petrochemical, was added, increasing total industry capacity by 100,000 tons compared to the end of 2025, while domestic output continued to grow. Additionally, imports remained low. The total supply for H1 is expected to reach 964,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.48%.
On the demand side, overall demand maintained growth, with exports increasing compared to the same period last year. Due to earlier cost pressures, downstream industries saw declining operating rates and reduced consumption in some sectors. Total demand for H1 is expected to reach 868,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.90%.
V. Supply-Demand Gap and Price Forecast for H2 2026
Table 2: Fundamental Data Forecast Table (Unit: yuan/ton, 10,000 tons)
| Item | Data Type | Category | 2026 H1 | 2026 H2 | Unit | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Material | Shandong | Acetone | 6211 | 5000 | yuan/ton | Jiangsu |
| Product | Price | MMA | 11892 | 10800 | yuan/ton | East China |
| Production Gross Profit | ACH Method | 1646 | 700 | yuan/ton | National | |
| C4 Method | 514 | -100 | yuan/ton | National | ||
| Total Supply | Supply | Output | 94.57 | 105 | 10,000 tons | National |
| Capacity Utilization | 64% | 67% | % | National | ||
| Import (E) | 1.82 | 1.50 | 10,000 tons | Estimated | ||
| Downstream Products | Price | PMMA Pellets | 14844 | 11400 | yuan/ton | East China, Domestic |
| Pure Acrylic Emulsion | 7075 | 6580 | yuan/ton | East China | ||
| Output | PMMA Pellets | 25.74 | 28 | 10,000 tons | National | |
| Acrylic Emulsion | 135 | 160 | 10,000 tons | National | ||
| Total Demand | Demand | Domestic Downstream Consumption | 67 | 65.5 | 10,000 tons | National Estimate |
| Export (E) | 19.82 | 17.00 | 10,000 tons | National Estimate |
In the second half of 2026, on the cost side, it is expected that the average MMA cost will be lower than in H1, easing cost pressure. On the supply side, planned MMA capacity additions total 200,000 tons, expected to come on stream in Q4. Based on historical operating conditions, producer operating rates in H2 are slightly higher than in H1, so supply is still expected to increase. On the demand side, due to a weaker overall macro environment, export pressure for MMA and downstream products persists. Therefore, although some new PMMA pellet and sheet capacity may still be added, the volume increase in MMA demand is unlikely to change the oversupply situation. Overall, the price range for H2 is expected to narrow.
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