According to data from the Business Society Bulk Commodity List, the domestic PC market remained firm and consolidated in mid-February, with spot prices for most grades showing mixed movements. As of February 9, the benchmark price for PC blends on the Business Society stood at approximately 12,833.33 yuan per ton, representing a month-to-date change of -1.03%.

Analysis of Reasons
Supply Side: In early February, the overall operating rate of domestic PC polymerization plants remained largely stable with minor increases. The second production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical, which had been restarted at the end of January, contributed to an industry-wide average operating rate rebound of 5% to over 86%, with a weekly average output exceeding 70,000 tons. Due to the rapid depletion of social inventories at the beginning of the year, production and sales pressures at polymerization plants remained relatively low. Overall, the supply side provided moderate support for PC.

Raw Materials Side: As shown in the chart above, the domestic bisphenol A (BPA) market continued its upward trend from late January into early February. Current domestic BPA supply growth is limited, while phenol and acetone, which had previously followed the rise in crude oil prices, are now consolidating at high levels. The persistently high raw material costs have driven up the theoretical production costs of BPA, compelling suppliers to maintain firm pricing, thereby providing some support to PC costs. For the future, it is advisable to monitor the progress of new capacity additions and the risks associated with raw material price fluctuations.

Demand Side: Profitability improvements among end-user enterprises remain limited, and the operating rates of downstream PC factories are still not ideal. The concentrated delivery of contract orders from late January has largely concluded, alleviating the previously tight supply situation. Additionally, after the price increase, buyers have become more cautious in restocking, and with pre-holiday stockpiling mostly completed, their willingness to build additional inventories is weak. However, due to localized supply tightness, spot prices remain firm. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices is moderate.

Future Outlook
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic PC market is expected to maintain firm pricing. Upstream BPA prices continue to show positive momentum, providing moderate cost support for PC. Domestic PC polymerization plants are operating at largely stable rates with minor increases, suggesting a slight easing of supply in the future. Trading activity in the market is expected to quiet down before the holiday, with buyers adopting a cautious approach and focusing on small-scale transactions. It is anticipated that the PC market will remain firm after the holiday.