Buyers are adopting a more aggressive stance due to cost tolerance constraints.
The bid-ask spread remains elevated, with the trading price range widening further compared to historical norms. As major high-premium buyers have satisfied their spot requirements, spot demand has dried up, prompting some suppliers to accept lower netback prices for shipments. Additionally, certain downstream enterprises have reduced plant operating rates due to negative margins caused by inverted downstream product prices. Meanwhile, forward delivery lots and small-volume cargoes continue to trade at premiums.
In the Indonesian and Indian markets, Middle East spot transactions were concluded at USD 1,060/ton CFR. Buyers cited a transaction from Vancouver ten days prior as a reference benchmark, priced at USD 950–1,000/ton CFR; however, it is reported that this deal included compensation elements, resulting in a price below mainstream market levels.
In the Brazilian market, a spot cargo from Vancouver traded last Monday at approximately USD 1,000/ton CFR, representing a decline from previous levels. While downstream consumer operating rates have been lowered, some market quotes remain at USD 1,145/ton CFR.
Nevertheless, there are reports of rising prices for small-lot transactions: two small deals destined for Southern Africa, split from larger volumes (5,000 tons and 10,000 tons respectively), were closed at prices exceeding USD 1,200/ton CFR.
Market Drivers
Low buyer bids and tight financing for immediate spot purchases have pressured some suppliers to reduce shipping prices for Vancouver-origin cargoes, thereby compressing the spread between Vancouver supply and Middle East FOB prices.
Outlook for the Next 30–60 Days: Stable to Weak
Market demand is declining. Suppliers face downward pricing pressure and need to push prices below USD 1,000/ton CFR to allow fertilizer producers to achieve reasonable profit margins. Concurrently, funding constraints are hampering market activity, leading to a further contraction in the pool of buyers capable of participating in spot bidding. Despite persistent supply tightness from the Middle East and Kazakhstan, these factors are unlikely to reverse the prevailing weak market trend.
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