Introduction: Recently, domestic rosin prices have experienced a slight decline, while glycerin prices have largely stabilized. Against the backdrop of falling costs and tight supply of rosin resins, prices remain firm.

During the week, rosin prices surged significantly by 800–1,400 yuan, driving up the prices of related petroleum resins to 16,000–17,500 yuan/ton amid overall supply shortages. However, a sharp drop in international oil prices on Wednesday and Thursday led to weaker raw material costs, dampened downstream buying interest, and a spread of cautious procurement attitudes. As a result, support in the rosin market weakened, and negotiated prices retreated by 100–400 yuan after the earlier rally. With limited supply of masson pine rosin and insufficient import replenishment, prices followed the upward trend and remained relatively firm. Rosin resin producers have orders extending into May, leading to increased demand for raw rosin and a sharp rise in its price. Meanwhile, downstream purchasing sentiment has weakened in line with the decline in international oil prices.

On February 27, the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict raised uncertainties about future raw material supply gaps, prompting a significant increase in procurement by downstream adhesive manufacturers. The phased reduction in petroleum resin supply, coupled with rapidly released stockpiling demand, notably widened the petroleum resin supply gap. In March, rosin resin prices mostly ranged between 11,500–12,500 yuan/ton. To seek alternatives and fill the supply gap, adhesive manufacturers turned to purchasing rosin resin, driving a short-term surge in rosin resin operating rates to meet customer orders. Prices also followed the sharp rise in petroleum resin prices. As of the time of writing, rosin resin prices have climbed to 16,000–17,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500–5,000 yuan. Production in March rose by approximately 20%, reaching around 22,000 tons.

By mid-April, although tensions in the Middle East have eased, the Strait's operations continue to support international oil prices at relatively high levels, and crude oil supply remains uncertain. Domestic ethylene operating rates are maintained at current levels, while C5 petroleum resin supply remains low, with prices holding steady at 16,000–17,500 yuan/ton.

Overall, rosin prices have limited downside potential, and glycerin prices are expected to see only moderate corrections from their highs. Rosin resin producers are largely focused on fulfilling orders. With the supply gap in C5 petroleum resins persisting and a price difference of 2,500–4,000 yuan compared to hydrogenated petroleum resins, some rosin resin grades are being used as partial substitutes. Supported by demand, rosin resin prices are expected to remain stable with little room for concessions.