Market Center of Gravity Continues to Decline Amid Plant Fluctuations and Weak Demand (Sept. 11–17, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: During the week, some units started up while others shut down, offsetting supply fluctuations. Overall supply remained stable with a slight increase. Continued attention is being paid to unit operations in the Shandong market.

2. Demand:

   • Unsaturated Polyester Resin (UPR): The weekly operating rate was 33%, representing a slight increase in overall capacity utilization compared to the previous week. Production status at UPR plants showed minimal fluctuation. This week, the restart of a unit in Nantong offset the production decline caused by the shutdown of a unit in Tianjin and partial shutdowns at a major manufacturer in Shandong. Additionally, some units increased their operating loads due to stockpiling needs, resulting in a slight rise in output compared to last week.
   • Polyether: Spot market offers were largely stable with minor adjustments. Producers actively offered discounts to secure orders. Bearish sentiment for the future continued to deepen. Downstream users maintained rigid demand purchasing as their primary strategy, with few actual transactions. Key focus remains on downstream market entry psychology and raw material news.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Table 1: Weekly Price Change Table for Domestic Propylene Glycol (Unit: RMB/ton)

Source: Chempricehub Information

This week, the domestic industrial-grade propylene glycol market exhibited a volatile trend characterized by a pullback from high levels. High costs provided firm support; however, steady but slightly increasing supply continued to suppress market sentiment. On the demand side, off-season characteristics persisted, and expectations for pre-holiday stockpiling for the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festivals had not yet materialized. Both domestic and foreign demand adopted a wait-and-see approach, leading to a price correction from highs. Overall market atmosphere was mediocre, with bearish sentiment remaining dominant. The market showed clear phase-specific divergence this week: early in the week, the stalemate from the previous period continued, but transactions at high prices were sluggish; subsequently, market quotes dropped significantly, and negotiated prices returned to phased lows, maintaining a deadlock within the market.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. As of the closing bell on September 17, the comprehensive gross profit margin for domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate produced via PO transesterification was +1,314.04 RMB/ton, a decrease of 21.48% week-on-week.

2. Cost factors remained elevated throughout the week, providing a cost floor for propylene glycol. However, weakening fundamentals in supply and demand became the core contradiction driving this week's market performance. Early in the week, the market maintained the high levels from the previous week, but follow-through on high prices was weak, with limited actual shipment volumes from factories. Subsequently, supplier sentiment loosened, market offers were revised downward significantly, and spot negotiation centers rapidly retreated to phased lows, causing bearish sentiment to intensify. Downstream buyers generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; domestic order follow-up was lackluster, and export orders were temporarily suspended pending lower prices. Overall transaction atmosphere within the market remained weak. Regarding supply, unit operations in the Shandong region saw both increases and decreases, leading to a stable but slightly increasing industry-wide supply, which further suppressed market sentiment. While export orders provided some rigid demand support, acting as a floor for the market, the interplay of bullish and bearish factors resulted in a somewhat deadlocked atmosphere.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Looking ahead, with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festivals approaching, downstream users and traders intend to wait for lower prices before restocking, intensifying market maneuvering. It is expected that the propylene glycol market may experience a narrow decline followed by a stalemate and volatility.

Raw Material Side: The domestic propylene oxide (PO) market is expected to remain primarily flat at high levels, with slight narrow fluctuations. At the end of last week, market prices reached new highs for the second half of the year before pausing to allow for digestion by various parties. Entering this week, rising crude oil prices helped propylene rebound from its bottom. However, with the PO-propylene spread returning to relatively high levels, most production processes have some room for profitability. This has only slightly boosted sentiment, with limited overall impact. Although there are local fluctuations on the supply side, the overall trend is toward gradual volume increases. During this release of incremental supply, inventory levels at active plants remain low, keeping offers stable. Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, hindering smooth cost transmission; however, low raw material inventories force passive rigid demand follow-up. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, resulting in a stalemate-dominated market that appears slightly weak after recent narrow adjustments. In the coming days, downstream demand is expected to wait for potential price declines before appropriately stocking up before the holidays, potentially releasing some rigid demand volume. Prices are predicted to consolidate within a range, with the possibility of moderate discounts followed by a rebound not ruled out.

Demand Side: The domestic unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) market price is expected to maintain a firm trend next week. Cost-side support is relatively solid, and small-scale spot price fluctuations upward cannot be excluded. However, high-priced goods still require gradual acceptance and digestion by downstream users. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain high-level consolidation with a continuing upward shift in the center of gravity. Specifically:

1. Supply Side: The overall operating load of UPR plants is expected to stabilize or slightly decline. As the holidays approach, some plants will face shutdowns or reduced operating rates.
2. Demand Side: With resin prices continuously rising, downstream willingness to chase highs is weak. Spot transactions are dominated by small rigid-demand orders, resulting in a slow trading pace. Entering September, the traditional "Golden September" peak season has failed to materialize as expected, and high resin prices impose significant cost pressure on downstream users. Against the backdrop of current soft terminal consumption, downstream order volumes struggle to grow, making it difficult to effectively boost rigid demand for UPR or accelerate procurement rhythms.
3. Cost Side: Major raw materials such as styrene and maleic anhydride continue to fluctuate within high ranges, providing certain cost support for UPR.