Maintenance announcements released; market sentiment strengthens as traders await price hikes

1. Daily Summary

① 9/22: US and Iranian delegations are scheduled to meet, raising market expectations for a easing of geopolitical tensions, which led to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI October futures closed at $94.59/bbl, down $1.19/bbl (-1.24%); ICE Brent November futures closed at $99.25/bbl, down $1.09/bbl (-1.09%). China INE crude oil futures contract SC2611 fell by 13.7 to 717.1 CNY/barrel, with the night session dropping another 22.3 to 694.8 CNY/barrel.

② 9/23: Domestic liquid chlorine prices remained stable today at 400 CNY/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Dichloromethane (DCM) Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Taking the Shandong region as the benchmark, DCM prices in Shandong closed today at 2485 CNY/ton (range: 2460-2510 CNY/ton), up from the previous trading day. The domestic DCM market continued its upward trend today. Overall operating rates hovered around 70%. Following pre-holiday restocking by downstream users and traders, producers faced little inventory pressure. Additionally, high raw material costs have kept chloromethane producers in a loss position, prompting them to maintain firm offer prices, thereby pushing the market center of gravity higher.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for chloromethanes stood at 69.43%, unchanged from the previous trading day. Regarding cost and profit margins, upstream liquid chlorine prices remained stable today, while methanol prices rose, leading to an increase in the theoretical production cost for chloromethanes. Based on calculations using externally sourced liquid chlorine, the daily profit margin for chloromethanes was -469 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Regional producers currently face no significant inventory pressure. Furthermore, upcoming plans for shutdowns or reduced loads at facilities in the Shandong region are expected to cause a substantial drop in regional operating rates. Amidst reluctance to sell among producers, DCM prices are expected to remain firm and continue rising. Attention should be paid to downstream acceptance levels and market changes during the upcoming holiday period.

5. Related Product Status

Refrigerant Market: Taking the East China bulk water market as the benchmark, major fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 plants maintained high price levels through volume control. As of press time, quotes from mainstream large-scale plants in East China referenced 65,500 CNY/ton (coordinated domestic and export offers). Mainstream market quotes in East China ranged from 63,500 to 64,500 CNY/ton, consistent with morning expectations. Channel inquiries for bulk supplies remain passively stagnant long-term, primarily serving fixed supply guarantees for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Recent quarterly long-contract negotiations are ongoing, with actual transactions pending confirmation. Shipment frequency for small-packaging products has slowed, leading source factories to strictly control spot inventory increases. Statistics indicate that industry-wide operating rates for R32 have dropped to nearly 40%. With recent reductions in plant scheduling and consumption power, along with declining export volumes, channel holders are seeking opportunities to offload inventory under the high-price plateau. Interest in purchasing high-cost inventory remains weak as buyers await clearer pricing signals from major producers. Chempricehub forecasts that R32 will focus on volume control and price maintenance in the short term, with commercial negotiations determining contract prices. Industry facility dynamics and scheduling rhythms warrant close observation.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Chloromethane Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)