Introduction: Costs remain stable, supply and demand fluctuate within a limited range, and ethanol transactions are running smoothly. On the supply side, there are fluctuations in major production areas, but the loss in production capacity is limited. On the demand side, the end-consumer market continues to face pressure and shows slow recovery. Downstream buyers are largely adopting a wait-and-see attitude, only making small supplementary purchases to cover basic immediate needs. The market lacks large transactions to provide effective support, making it difficult to stabilize and lift recycled oil prices.
I. Limited Cost Fluctuations; Losses Persist
| Product | This Period | Last Period | Change | Change % | Next Period Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE Corn 95% Ethanol | -232.82 | -249.13 | 16.31 | 6.55% | ↗ |
| North Jiangsu Cassava 95% Ethanol | -549.58 | -584.80 | 35.22 | 6.02% | ↗ |
| NE Fuel Ethanol | 355.30 | 355.30 | 0.00 | 0.00% | → |
| Guangxi Molasses Ethanol | 520.00 | 520.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | → |
| Coal-to-Ethanol | 300.00 | 300.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | → |
| Ethyl Acetate | -330.42 | -268.73 | -61.69 | -22.96% | ↓ |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) / Ethyl Methyl Carbonate (EMC)? | 447.70 | 653.50 | -205.80 | -31.49% | ↓ |
Northeast Corn & By-products Analysis: Corn market prices edged down this week. As of July 2nd, the national weekly average corn price was 2365 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY/ton or 0.08% from the previous week. Regionally, corn prices in the Northeast weakened slightly, with no improvement in transaction volume. Selling Northeast corn outside the region remains difficult, with shipments to Northern ports generally incurring losses. Some deep-processing plants in the producing areas have halted operations for maintenance, leading to insufficient procurement. In North China, corn prices fluctuated within a narrow range, showing regional divergence. Traders' inventories are generally high. Recently, some areas have been affected by rainy weather, dampening corn buying and selling activity and causing uneven distribution of grain stocks. In the sales regions, the weekly center of gravity for corn prices was slightly weaker, with overall stable prices fluctuating narrowly. Market activity remained sluggish, with only just-in-time purchases for immediate needs and no batch stockpiling behavior.
Cassava Chips Analysis: This week, Thai cassava chip prices remained stable. The current market price for Thai cassava chips is quoted at FOB 255 USD/ton. The RMB exchange rate is at 6.7888.
Molasses Analysis: This week, Guangxi molasses inventories were sold. Ex-factory prices were 830-850 CNY/ton. The freight cost for truck delivery to factories is approximately 50 CNY/ton. Currently, molasses-to-ethanol plants are shut down.
II. Limited Supply-Demand Fluctuations; Slight Increase in In-Plant Capacity Loss
Ethanol Regional Operating Rate Changes
| Region | This Period | Last Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 58.42% | 63.25% | -4.82% |
| North China | 40.06% | 40.06% | 0.00% |
| East China | 50.49% | 50.49% | 0.00% |
| South China | 31.30% | 31.30% | 0.00% |
| Central China | 21.80% | 25.74% | -3.94% |
| Northwest | 69.63% | 44.00% | 25.63% |
| Southwest | 14.73% | 14.73% | 0.00% |
| Total | 46.43% | 46.64% | -0.22% |
In-Plant Supply Decrease: Supply of bio-fermentation ethanol decreased this period. Heilongjiang Shenglong shut down; Henan Hanyong unit shut down. Hongzhan Bayan is in production, but Laha unit is shut down; Wanli shut down; COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol resumed production, with output beginning early this month; Zhongke Gelin is stable; Shenglong shut down; Jilin Fukang operates Lines 3 and 4, Line 2 is shut down; Jilin Xintianlong is in production; Dongfeng Hualiang unit shut down; Zhalantun unit expected to resume shortly; SDIC Tieling, Hailun shut down; Jidong unit in production; Jilin large ethanol unit in production. Henan Mengzhou Houyuan and Huaxing units are normal, Hanyong unit shut down, Xinxiang unit shut down; Sichuan Hongzhan unit shut down; Anhui COFCO units: Bengbu operates two lines, Suzhou shut down; Shandong Qufeng unit in production. Guangxi COFCO ignited on the 1st but no output yet; Guangxi Jinyuan unit shut down. Coal-to-ethanol supply is stable. Shandong plant units shut down; Shaanxi Yushen Energy and Chemical unit started feeding this week, no sales as of writing; Xinghua plant operates at 30% load; Yulin Kaiyue operates stably; Anhui unit in production; Guangdong unit normal; Yulin Kaiyue unit normal; Henan Anyang operates stably; Henan Yongcheng normal; Jingmen Yuanhan unit in production; Hunan plant unit in production; Xinjiang Tianye unit in production.
| Producer | Unit Under Maintenance | Capacity (10,000 tons?) | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui COFCO | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Guannan Xinguan | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Zhalantun | Fermentation Ethanol | 15.00 | 2026/6/1 | 2026/7/6 |
| Lianyungang Longhe | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2025/10/20 | |
| Dongfeng Hualiang | Fermentation Ethanol | 10.00 | 2026/4/30 | |
| SDIC Hailun | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/9 | |
| SDIC Tieling | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Xinxiang Xinxing Bio | Fermentation Ethanol | 8.00 | 2026/5/18 | |
| Sichuan Hongzhan | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | |
| Henan Hanyong | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/30 | |
| Heilongjiang Shenglong | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/30 | Est. 45 days |
| Wanli Runda | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/23 | Est. 40 days |
| COFCO Zhaodong | Fermentation Ethanol | 30.00 | 2026/6/15 | 2026/7/1 |
| Jilin Fukang | Fermentation Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/7/10 | |
| Jilin Yushu | Fermentation Ethanol | 17.00 | Est. end of July | |
| Guangxi COFCO | Fermentation Ethanol | 20.00 | 2026/6/8 | 2026/7/1 |
| Xinjiang Tianye | Coal-to-Ethanol | 25.00 | Est. July | |
| Shandong Hengxin | Coal-to-Ethanol | 50.00 | 2026/6/5 | 2026/7/15 |
| Total | 500.00 | -- | -- |
Outlook: Ethanol prices are expected to remain stable in the next period. Supply is expected to increase slightly next week as the maintenance period in major producing areas ends. End-user demand is improving, but traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market is expected to maintain a supply-over-demand situation.
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